Peace with Baku will bring more benefits to Yerevan than being in limbo Caliber.Az talks to Kirill Koktysh

Caliber.Az had an interview with Kirill Koktysh, a Russian political scientist, professor at MGIMO, and expert on Union State policy. The pundit expressed his standpoint on the regional situation and the policy the West pursues in the South Caucasus.

- Baku and Yerevan have issued a joint statement, which signals a breakthrough on the negotiation track. Do you think it will be possible to finally put an end to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict?

- I would like to welcome the joint statement of Azerbaijan and Armenia on readiness to move towards signing a peace treaty. It inspires a certain optimism. But how durable these agreements will be is also a question. At the same time, it can be noted that the Armenian leadership is quite ready to sign a peace agreement, moreover, it has its motivation.

The fact is that it is much more favourable for Pashinyan to conclude a peace agreement than to leave the matter in limbo. There is too much hype around the agreement in the international arena, and the Armenian prime minister needs to sign something and turn the page. Then Pashinyan will be able to switch to other matters and remove this sword of Damocles which is hanging over him.

- Is peace between Baku and Yerevan in Moscow's favour?

- Russia needs long-term stability in the region, stability that suits both sides. Therefore, Moscow is interested in any balanced solution in the region, in which, in turn, Azerbaijan and Armenia are interested.

- Does the collective West need a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan?

- I think the West is not interested in such an agreement. It benefits from instability, where it could be a manager and "manage" its interests. This form of game is more attractive for the US and the EU. So everything is traditional here.

- Yerevan wants to "diversify" its ties, to say the least. In other words, is Armenia moving away from Russia towards the West?

- It's not even a question of what Pashinyan personally wants; he's being forced to escalate by external forces. And we do not know exactly how dependent he is on his Western counterparts, on Soros. But the West's goal is the long-term destabilisation of the situation along the entire perimeter of Russia's borders. Given that the state of affairs in Russia's war with Ukraine is not in the West's favour. And that's why Russia is so interested in strengthening security on its southern borders, to avoid any Western mediation under a peace guise for the CIS countries. Because they will not bring peace. There is a Czech proverb: "Heat your soup on your neighbour's fire". The West is following the same strategy in the region. However, it will not be possible to turn Armenia into another Ukraine, although it may succeed in implementing a plan of long-term destabilisation of the situation in the South Caucasus, especially in Armenia. One could say that the West specialises in settling the conflicts it creates.

- Will Moscow let Armenia go?

- Moscow always reacts. Another question is what form of reaction it will choose and in what proportion. On the other hand, I don't believe that Armenia will leave the CSTO and the EAEU shortly. Despite all the anti-Russian campaign in Armenia, it doesn't make much sense. Pashinyan runs a great risk of leaving Armenia in a security vacuum. This is due to the uncertainty in the US itself; much of Washington's policy could change after the elections. However, Armenia has long campaigned against the Russian presence in the country.

- Some believe that the West's presence in Armenia in the form of paramilitary reconnaissance and observation missions is aimed at provoking Iran. How do you view this scenario?

- I think that if the West failed to provoke Iran in the Middle East, it would be quite unsuccessful in the South Caucasus. Tehran will not escalate, because it is well aware of the course of this adventure.

- Are we likely to see any changes in Russian policy after the 2024 elections? For example, will Moscow's strategy in the South Caucasus change?

- I do not think there will be any serious changes. Russia will continue to act based on its interests, taking into account the interests of its partners. However, if Armenia continues its anti-Russian game, the Kremlin's retaliation will intensify. Russia will not cede this region to Western centres of influence. But the US and France can certainly help destabilise the South Caucasus. And such attempts are likely to continue.