Prigozhin's insurrection failed but signalled nearing political crisis in Russia Is Putin’s Chef crushing the regime?

On June 24, the head of the Russian Wagner mercenary group and oligarch Yevgeni Prigozhin launched mutiny against the Russian government after allegedly the regular army had killed a vast number of his fighters in an air strike and vowing to punish them.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfolded in February 2022, Prigozhin’s Wagner private military company (PMC) gained momentum for its notorious role in the occupation. However, Wagner PMC did not manage to take under large swathes of territories in eastern Ukraine dragging criticism at home and abroad. Instead, Prigozhin harshly criticised the Russian Defense Ministry and Minister Sergei Shoigu, accusing him of deliberately "plotting" against Wagner.

The standoff, many of whose details remained unclear, looked like the most prominent domestic crisis President Vladimir Putin has faced since he ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. When the Prigozhin insurrection occurred, the Wagner forces quickly gained control over Rostov and Voronezh cities, heading toward the Moscow suburbs. Nevertheless, in a "surprise move", Prigozhin ordered his forces to turn around and withdraw from major cities, thus ending the plot.

Reportedly, he did this in exchange for amnesty or a guarantee that he would leave Russia for Belarus. Notably, Prigozhin's resources were very limited for carrying such a big mutiny and seizing control of Moscow. Undoubtedly, the weight of the armed forces was on Putin's side, making it a short-lived rebellion. It is significant that the National Guard was reportedly in action.

While this campaign can hardly be described as a coup or mutiny, Prigozhin's insurrection would have short, medium, and longer-term impacts on the war in Ukraine, as well as the stability of Russia into the future. After many years, Vladimir Putin's authority has been challenged openly as waning confidence in the Russian leader may decrease the morale of invading Russian troops and be used by Ukrainians to exploit internal weaknesses that arise due to the infighting.

Although some argued that well-known ultranationalist Russian generals, like Sergei Surovikin, known in the West as General Armageddon for his obliteration of the Syrian city of Aleppo, would likely support Prigozhin's insurrection, Surovikin and other generals refrained from expressing their support to the process.

Moreover, Chechnya's strongman Ramza Kadyrov denounced his call for rebellion by sending his elite forces to Rostov to topple the Wagner forces. And some other key players and security agencies have clearly sided with the Kremlin. They include the FSB intelligence service, which has called on Wagner fighters not to carry out the criminal and treacherous orders of Prigozhin and to take steps to detain him themselves.

Vladimir Putin may seem to be controlling the situation, but the rebellion occurred due to his failures in foreign/domestic policy and Ukraine, followed by enormous casualties.

Notwithstanding the mounting losses in Ukraine, Putin failed to dismiss defence minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of general staff Valeri Gerasimov, which triggered the incident. The war in Ukraine has also exposed complex relationships and jostling rivalries between some of Russia's key players, which include army generals, politicians, and warlords.

Win or lose, the attempt by Prigozhin to change military leadership to his liking would have likely seen Putin remain the country's top leader. Nonetheless, the attempted coup watched worldwide left the leader with less power.

Despite the Russian authorities' "shock state", the Western media claimed that the US spy agencies had indications days earlier that Prigozhin was planning something and worked to refine that material into a finished assessment. If true, it means that the Western intelligence agencies were well aware of the looming rebellion, and it is unlikely that the Russian intelligence forces “missed” this critical point.

Therefore, it is fair to note that the ruling government partly staged this insurrection to alleviate the elite split with further attempts to dismiss the Wagner group by integrating it into the regular army. Intelligence reports released as part of the Discord leaks also showed that the United States had intercepted communications between senior Russian military leaders debating how to handle Prigozhin’s constant demands for more ammunition.

Moreover, ordinary Russians in Rostov and Voronezh cheering Wagner forces and providing food for fighters, and Putin’s inability to prevent the rebellion could draw questions about his leadership skills and popularity among government influencers. There’s no doubt that Prigozhin’s mutiny amounts to the biggest political crisis Putin has faced in his long-term political career, blowing up his legitimacy.

Nevertheless, Putin still maintains control despite inevitable failures, and the claims that regime change will occur in Russia soon do not seem credible. On the other hand, it is unlikely that Prigozhin will stay in exile in Belarus for a very long time and will make a surprise comeback to join the power struggle in Russia to gain his long-awaited "political dividends."