Pundit: No interconnection among events in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan Caliber.Az from Tashkent

Independent expert from Uzbekistan Oleg Golishnikov has commented on the recent events in Karakalpakstan and the measures, taken by the Uzbek authorities, for Caliber.Az.

- Why did Tashkent decide to change the status of the Republic of Karakalpakstan by amending the new Constitution of Uzbekistan?

- Such a proposal, as Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said, was made by MPs of the Jokargy Kenes (local parliament) of Karakalpakstan. During one of the meetings in Nukus, the president reproached the leadership of Karakalpakstan for not being informed about the population's dissatisfaction with the social and economic situation in the region.

However, it is still unknown who initiated this proposal. It is also unknown what prompted such an initiative - an assessment of external factors (the situation in Ukraine) or a desire to remove "formalities" from the Constitution just in case.

In general, I think that the authorities will draw the right conclusions from the events in Karakalpakstan, including approaches to communicating with different groups of the population on important social and political issues and analytically work out the possible consequences of decisions that are taken to avoid crisis situations in the future.

- Some experts notice the involvement of foreign countries in the protests in Uzbekistan. Representative of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) Secretariat Alexander Kuznetsov said that they "contribute to the negative developments". Is it so?

- The Uzbek authorities also assert the involvement of external destructive forces in the events in Karakalpakstan. The investigative agencies will reveal which forces have been involved and whether their influence has been decisive. It is possible to say that the crisis has been inflated by some foreign media outlets and segments of social networks, first of all, by media outlets of a number of neighboring countries.

Meanwhile, if we admit the involvement of external forces in these events, then we can unambiguously say that their attempts failed. The authorities quickly and fully controlled the situation and did not allow it to aggravate.

- Is Russia interested in Karakalpakstan?

- Someone sees Moscow’s involvement in these events, and someone - the West’s involvement. I think that such opinions simplify the situation, being more the consequence of the current atmosphere of confrontation between the Russian Federation and the West than a sober assessment of the situation. The issue is that the internal processes in the Central Asian countries, and in Uzbekistan in particular, have their own dynamics and logic of development. When analyzing the situation in these countries, special attention should be paid.

- Is there a risk that Karakalpakstan may become the zone of permanent conflict as Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria?

- I don't think that there are such risks. In general, it is not correct to compare Karakalpakstan with the abovementioned republics.

For example, there has never been a confrontation between Tashkent and Nukus. There is no confrontation now, even after these events. Secondly, much depends on the influence of external forces in all the abovementioned republics, while relations between Tashkent and Nukus have never depended on outside influence.

Throughout the history of independence, Tashkent was the decision-making centre on the territory of entire Uzbekistan, it is such a centre now and will remain such a center in the future.

There is a lot of work to be done to restore an atmosphere of trust, mutual understanding, and stability, because as a result of the events in Karakalpakstan there are dead and wounded, which cannot be forgotten.

- Can protest moods spread to other regional countries?

- We have observed the riots in several Central Asian countries this year. The recent events in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are not interconnected, but they once again draw the attention of the authorities of all Central Asian countries to the need to accelerate the implementation of real reforms aimed at improving the well-being of citizens and ensuring their rights and freedoms.

- What is happening in Uzbekistan now? Can the situation escalate again?

- At the moment, the situation is completely controlled by the authorities. The state of emergency introduced in Karakalpakstan to ensure security and order will last until early August 2022. The authorities are taking all necessary measures to prevent the recurrence of such situations. The authorities have all the means and opportunities to ensure Uzbekistan’s territorial integrity.