Sochi - Washington: He who laughs last laughs best Signs and messages of meetings

Politics is like an iceberg in the ocean: only the tip is on the surface, and a much larger, invisible part of it is underwater. Allegory does not become obsolete over the years. Even today, Azerbaijan is playing an extremely difficult game on the diplomatic front, practically forcing Armenia to peace in the South Caucasus, while the political elite of Yerevan, writhing and hissing like a trapped snake, proceeds in the media space with the poison of slanderous statements, but is forced to do what Azerbaijan demands and orders. And the signs-symbols of the negotiations of the Azerbaijani, Armenian and Russian leaders on the last day of October are sometimes much more eloquent than any words, forecasts and official documents…

The message in the Armenian newspaper Hraparak that the gates leading to the Armenian National Assembly are being hastily welded shut, and barbed wire is being laid along the walls, along which, judging by the presence of electric wires, they intend to pass current is one of such notable signs. What is official Yerevan afraid of? Who are Armenian politicians afraid of? 

To answer this question, let's rewind the time a little bit. The trilateral meeting of Aliyev, Pashinyan, and Putin in Sochi, Russia's southern capital, clearly demonstrated that Yerevan's hopes of bringing the infamous issue of "status" to the negotiating table with the help of the Kremlin are illusory and futile. And the main diplomatic task of Ilham Aliyev this time was, perhaps, to help his opponents realise the inexorable fact that the attempts of Armenia and Moscow, which undertook to "help Armenia a little", are doomed to failure. And although what the leaders talked about was not disclosed in detail, their final statements were undoubtedly significant.

"Unfortunately, it was not possible to agree on everything," Vladimir Putin admitted sadly. And this is true - the final document, in principle, does not contain any  specifics, except that it tells about a certain "intention of the parties". In fact, this is a statement that the Armenian diplomats failed to push through their developments on the "status" due to the resolute blocking of this topic by the Azerbaijani president. In the two-on-one confrontation, Aliyev won.

Andranik Tevanyan, an Armenian political scientist and a member of the Hayastan parliamentary faction, described the situation in a very figurative and very graphic way. "Aliyev arrived in Sochi on the 'diplomatic bayraktar', whose name is Nikol Pashinyan," he said.

And then he shrewdly suggested with what spectacular technique the head of Azerbaijan put his opponents into a knockdown. According to Tevanyan, "any proposal made by Putin in the Armenian interests, as well as in Russia's interests, for example, to extend the mandate of peacekeepers, received a very clear response from Aliyev".

Although the Armenian politician believes that "the Azerbaijani president probably just referred to Nikol Pashinyan's promises, noting that Nikol in Prague recognised that Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan, that they find a common language and the Russian Federation is trying in vain to change something".

In general, as history shows, the carrot and stick method works flawlessly in many cases, and Azerbaijan successfully uses it, and sometimes with a new option – in particularly difficult situations, completely disabling the "carrot" and acting only with the "stick". It should be noted that both the opposing side and the international mediators are thoroughly impressed.

In this context, it does not hurt to recall the very recent negotiations with Armenia at the level of foreign ministers already in Washington and with another moderator – the United States, where Azerbaijan openly showed the possible consequences of its "stick". Although with a peaceful message…

Very specifically, following the meeting with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, Minister Bayramov outlined the message of Azerbaijani diplomacy on his Twitter post. "I confirmed Azerbaijan's commitment and readiness to conclude a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia as soon as possible and urged to refrain from actions that could undermine this process," Bayramov wrote. The key point here, of course, is "urged to refrain from action".

But with what kind of stick Azerbaijan is able to spur, President Aliyev transparently hinted in his message from Shusha on November 8, when he noted that "Armenia should understand well what this means. Today, from these strategic heights, we can see the cities of Garakilsia, Gafan, Gorus and Istisu".

On the same day, Turkish National Defence Minister Hulusi Akar added to the Armenian side's thoughts by speaking in Ankara at an event commemorating November 8 - Azerbaijan's Patriotic War Victory Day. "The Azerbaijani soldier showed the whole world that he is capable of liberating his lands, demonstrated the strength of the Turks to the whole world," he said.

And also about the signs: in photos from various kinds of international meetings, as a rule, the facial expressions of the participants say a lot. So in Washington, if [Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat] Mirzoyan shakes hands with Bayramov with a malicious smile at the start of the negotiations, then in the final photo the Azerbaijani foreign minister smiles in unison at Blinken, but the Armenian minister looks gloomy and depressed. He was obviously reminded of what the Azerbaijani Iron Fist, i.e. the stick, is capable of. And he also probably wondered what would happen to him when Yerevan, despite all its toxic efforts, still has to conclude a peace treaty on Baku's terms - Mirzoyan clearly does not want to become an object of the hatred of the heated crowd for the second time.

Meanwhile, a new meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers is on the way, to which, hopefully, Yerevan will arrive with more realistic intentions. Well, if not, it should not wait for the descent from Baku. That is why the Armenian authorities ordered to weld the gates of the parliament, and lay barbed wire under electric voltage. Pashinyan and his team recognize that, despite their best efforts, tricks, and deceptions, they will have to accept the peace on Baku's terms, and it wouldn't hurt to insure themselves in their homeland just in case. Such are the costs of being the first person of the state, which is also burdened with the ambitions of the "Great Armenians."