Tehran – Moscow military partnership as a "destabilizing" factor of European security More Iranian drones for Russia

Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev visited Tehran to meet his Iranian counterpart Ali Shamkhani on November 9, amid mounting evidence of Russia's use of Iranian drones in its war against Ukraine. Patrushev's visit came after criticisms against the Islamic Republic for not being transparent about the sale of drones to Moscow and concerns in the West that Iran is planning to supply ballistic missiles to Russia.

Recently Moscow and Tehran deepened defence ties as the latter is likely to increase the volume of weaponry exported to Russia. In the wake of the growing international pressure and criticism, the Iranian authorities, on November 5, acknowledged for the first time that it had sent a “limited” number of drones to Russia in the months before the start of its invasion of Ukraine.

Although numerous Ukrainian and foreign sources provided video footage of downed Iranian drones in Ukraine three months earlier as physical evidence, official Tehran denied the fact that indigenously built loitering munitions were exported to Russia exclusively for use in its unprovoked war against Ukraine. In addition to kamikaze drones, Iran reportedly sent trainers and tactical advisers from the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps to Crimea to assist with mechanical problems and facilitate drone launchings. Social media outlets linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps have even posted videos of the drone attacks in Kyiv, perhaps to underline the prowess of its weapons system.

The long-term policy of denial of Iran appeared to be huge nonsense amid growing international criticism and provided evidence, whereas Iran’s assistance to Russia against Ukraine flared up debates in the West and at home. The issue has been a key topic during the meeting of European foreign ministers on October 15. During the recent meeting, European states discussed the transfer of Iranian drones to Russia and the possibility of imposing additional sanctions on Tehran for breaching the UN Security Council resolution that endorsed the 2015 nuclear accord, best known as JCPOA.

Moreover, the row over the drones reflects a wider foreign policy debate in Tehran about the risks of developing close links with Moscow. Surprisingly, the vocal criticism of the local authorities is being led by a conservative cleric and a newspaper Jomhouri-e-Islami. The main thesis of critics is that Tehran was supposed to negotiate with Russia beforehand that it had no right to use drones in Ukraine and to observe international regulations that prohibit encroachment on the territory of other countries. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei openly backed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at a meeting with visiting President Vladimir Putin on July 19, saying that if Moscow "had not taken the initiative, the other side would have caused a war on its own initiative."

Iran is providing loitering munitions, which are somewhere between precision-guided munitions, cruise missiles, and drones. The Iranian-produced Shahid-136 (renamed by Russia as the Geran-2) is a loitering munition, although it is sometimes misleadingly referred to in media as a kamikaze or suicide drone. The Iranian-produced Shahed-136 (renamed by Russia as the Geran-2) is a loitering munition, although it is sometimes misleadingly referred to in media as a suicide drone.

Since the war erupted in Ukraine, Russia has been using its domestically produced (KUB and Lancet) loitering munitions. However, Western sanctions and supply issues have deprived Russia of critical components to produce these loitering munitions at home. In this vein, two factors perfectly explain Iran's export of drones to Russia: Moscow's need for a cheap, expendable unmanned system to target Ukrainian infrastructure and Iran's strategic interest in upending the Western-led world order and enhancing its geopolitical influence. Although Shahed drone costs much less than Turkey's flagship Bayraktar-TB2 drones that Ukraine widely uses, it retains crucial capabilities, including the ability to evade radar detection and operate at a range of up to 2000 kilometres.

Notwithstanding, Iran – Russia military partnership may have broader implications for both states and European security given the recent reports that Russia handed over to Iran the Western-produced sophisticated weaponry, including a British NLAW anti-tank missile, a US Javelin anti-tank missile and a Stinger anti-aircraft missile that somehow "fell into Russian hands" on their way to Ukraine, referring to what seemed to be satellite images of two Ilyushin IL-76 military cargo planes arriving at and departing Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran on August 20. While this transfer reveals the level of Moscow-Tehran defence cooperation against the West aligned with Ukraine, it also proves that the cooperation will likely continue. As such, further reports suggested that Russia and Iran signed a new $200 million cost deal for the export of the next batch of kamikaze drones.

The long-term isolation sanctions period prevented Iran from developing modern military hardware with smart technologies, but now Tehran eyes an opportunity to fix this problem. However, the desire to upgrade its outdated military and defence industry would come at the cost of renewed tensions with the US amid the nuclear talks. On the other hand, the Western weapons Iran reportedly received from Russia could be instrumental in Iran's own weapons development systems.

The proliferation of Western and Iranian drones in the Russo-Ukraine war will cause more civilian lives and harm to civilian infrastructure in the war-torn country. However, Russia's expected decision to withdraw from the key town Kherson it annexed through the "referendum" makes it clear that Iranian drones are unlikely to be real game-changers for Moscow in this war. Also, kamikaze drones could be neutralized soon as Ukraine has already started acquiring modern air-defence systems, namely NASAMS, from Western partners.