The Indian guru of U-turns Modi yields to America

On October 15, U.S. President Donald Trump once again made a statement that surprised everyone—this time concerning India. Speaking to journalists the day before, the U.S. president said that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had promised him to stop buying Russian oil. According to Trump, this will happen in a short period of time.

“So I was not happy that India was buying oil (Russian — ed.), and he (Modi)assured me today that they will not be buying oil from Russia,” the American president told reporters at the White House. Trump called this promise “a big step.” “Now we’re going to get China to do the same thing,” Reuters quoted him as saying.

Let’s leave China aside for now—it’s, as we know, a tough nut to crack. But what made India reverse course so quickly, even though the country also claims to be a global power and generally a “tough player”?

Let’s recall that not long ago, in response to Washington imposing 25% trade tariffs on India, Modi, at the SCO summit in Tianjin, was seen deliberately mingling and taking photos with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, giving the impression that he was forming an almost triple alliance against the collective West. He succeeded in creating this impression—so much so that Trump half-resigned, half-wryly wrote on his social media: “Looks like we've lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China. May they have a long and prosperous future together!”

A little over a month has passed, and it appears that Modi has realised that neither he personally nor the India he leads can hope for a long and prosperous future without the American market. One can assume that the American president himself did not expect Modi to reverse course so quickly. It is easy to imagine the surprise that the Indian premier’s U-turn caused in the highest circles of Moscow and Beijing.

India’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has handled the situation quite elegantly. India's priority on oil imports was to "safeguard the interests of the Indian consumer in a volatile energy scenario,” and imports of oil from Russia serve this purpose, said official spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal. “Ensuring stable energy prices and secured supplies have been the twin goals of our energy policy. This includes broad-basing our energy sourcing and diversifying as appropriate to meet market conditions.”

From these words, one can conclude that “diversification” could at least mean a reduction in imports of Russian oil. This gives reason to take Trump’s statements at face value. Moreover, the Indian MFA representative went on to note that New Delhi is already negotiating energy cooperation with Washington. In short, the time does not seem far off when American oil and gas will replace cheap Russian supplies in the Indian economy. New Delhi appears to have calculated the overall gains and losses of cooperation with Russia and, probably, concluded that buying cheap oil might end up costing more in the long run.

For Trump, it is very important to end the war in Ukraine so that nothing distracts him from his main rival—China. To some extent, the exact outcome of the war matters less; what matters most is stopping it. Meanwhile, neither Kyiv nor Moscow currently see any reason to agree to a ceasefire. Moscow, in particular, remains tempted to advance to the western borders of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia—territories constitutionally incorporated into Russia—rather than leave the task for the future. And there are other nuances as well…

Against this backdrop, it seems the American president is trying to slow the advance of Russian forces in Ukraine, for which it is crucial to cut off Moscow’s revenues from hydrocarbon sales. The first serious step in this direction appears to have been taken. Now it remains to be seen how Moscow will respond.