US backs direct dialogue between Baku and Yerevan Avoiding pressure on Armenia

Russian media reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov invited a number of heads of foreign ministries to attend the April 24-25 UN Security Council ministerial meetings. Notably, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is among those invited. We should remind you that Russia has taken the UN Security Council presidency since April 1 and will hold this post for a month.

So, one can assume that in a situation of the ongoing geopolitical standoff between the superpowers, the Russian initiative regarding the presence of the US secretary of state at a Security Council meeting proceeds from the following circumstances.

It is very likely that Blinken's attendance suggests a possible meeting between Moscow and Washington officials. This is commendable, given that since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia and the United States have shown no desire to start a dialogue, limiting themselves to harsh statements to each other. Therefore, once Lavrov and Blinken meet, the situation in Ukraine will be the key topic of their conversation. At the same time, given both Moscow's and Washington's undisguised interest in the South Caucasus, the sides will also most likely focus on the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement.

Issues relating to the sanctions policy of the United States and the West are likely to be on the agenda. This issue is of particular importance to both Moscow and Washington today. Incidentally, the last meeting between Sergei Lavrov and Anthony Blinken took place on the margins of the G20 ministerial meeting in India in early March this year. However, as Russian media reported at the time, the bilateral dialogue was sporadic. The US secretary of State said that neither Russia nor the US had planned to have contacts with one another in the margins of the forum from the outset. A Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, voiced much the same version, calling the tough arguments that led Lavrov and Blinken to ignore the possibility of negotiations the fact that Washington supported the escalation of conflicts by relegating diplomacy to the back burner.

State Department spokesman Ned Price later provided details of the meeting, saying that during his brief dialogue with Lavrov, the secretary of state did raise issues of concern to Washington. In particular, it is known that Blinken called for lifting the decision to suspend Moscow's participation in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), notifying the Russian side of Washington's intention to support Ukraine as long as necessary. Judging by this exchange of rather trenchant remarks, it hardly needs to be said that Washington's representative will express any different position on Ukraine at the proposed meeting. Especially now, when Russia is in a rather difficult situation at the front.

As far as the normalisation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations is concerned, it is most unlikely that the sides will reach even an approximate consensus due to their mutual desire to strengthen their positions in the strategically important Caucasus region. As we know, Russia insists on a settlement based on the Trilateral Statement of November 2020.

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated this position, describing the agreements with Baku and Yerevan on Karabakh as non-alternative.

"These trilateral agreements are the only real, realistic basis for a settlement right now, so we consider progress towards the implementation of all the provisions to be non-alternative and necessary for all," Peskov said.

The situation has a noteworthy detail: the USA, unlike Russia, pays lip service to the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations without intermediaries, i.e. directly between Baku and Yerevan. However, Washington is too active in organising meetings between the leaders of the conflicting sides on the American track, i.e. with its participation. Moscow doesn't like it at all.

On the other hand, the initiatives of the USA in the South Caucasus in this direction do not excite Brussels too, which would like to become the main mediator in establishing a peaceful dialogue between Baku and Yerevan.

Meanwhile, as the practice has shown over the years, even the presence of several mediators has not contributed to the normalisation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. If one of the sides is constantly undermining the agreements reached, no mediators will be able to do anything. All the more so when these mediators also have their own, not entirely disinterested, plans for the region of confrontation. To say nothing of the fact that in the case of Yerevan, the principles of peaceful diplomacy do not work at all, since only the language of force and pressure is taken seriously there. This was proved by the Second Karabakh War of 2020.

It follows from this that the efforts of international mediators should not be limited to calling for peace, in this case to Baku and Yerevan. What is needed here is harsh political pressure on the instigator of all provocations and delays in the peace talks. Namely, Armenia, which has been trying the patience of Azerbaijan for more than two and a half years and has been baffling the world community with its heart-warming stories. At that, measures to force Yerevan to peace must be weighty, up to using sanctions, which, by the way, the West and the United States often resort to in order to achieve their goals.

But the paradox is that while Russia, willing to consolidate its position in the region and to keep Armenia in the orbit of its interests, is forced to show diplomatic efforts in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement, the USA could put direct pressure on Armenia, using its leverage mechanisms to advance its ambitions in the Caucasus. Therefore, as long as the US continues to limit itself to declaratory appeals for direct dialogue between the parties to the conflict, the establishment of lasting peace in the region will be in question for at least the foreseeable future. It is possible that the proposed meeting between the heads of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Washington, initiated by Anthony Blinken, will be at least an indication of how much the US is interested in stability in the South Caucasus.