Venezuelan threat in Belarus? Lukashenko says scenario “unrealistic”

“The Venezuelan scenario in Belarus is unrealistic…” Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko shared his views on the latest developments in “this mad, turbulent world.” Speaking in Minsk at a state awards ceremony, Lukashenko commented on a number of events that have shaken the international community and urged Belarusians to do everything necessary to strengthen the country’s defence capability.

Belarusians are a self-sufficient nation

Last week, the Belarusian capital hosted the presentation of special awards — For Spiritual Revival — to figures in culture and the arts, as well as the Belarusian Sports Olympus awards. Notably, Alexander Lukashenko began his speech in the Belarusian language. The president stressed: “As I have already told young people, traditions are the foundation of our statehood… And sovereign Belarus, a state very young by historical standards, was built on the basis of a centuries-old culture of memory.”

According to Lukashenko, it is thanks to this unique heritage that Belarusians have today become a self-sufficient nation. He placed particular emphasis on the priority of spiritual heritage. The president recalled that during the difficult 1990s, the country managed to find support precisely in the soul of ordinary people: “We found it in people of good will — compassionate and selfless — who preserved their inner purity during those harsh years,” the head of state said.

Alexander Lukashenko also commented in detail on the dramatic events of today: “I did not want to touch on this issue — Venezuela. But I did, because it is a friendly people who once lent us a helping hand. If someone has forgotten — I have not. And to some extent, well, they did not save our country, but they provided strong support. In the days of Chávez, when they were working together with Nicolás Maduro, I often visited there. I knew both men…”

Lukashenko said he had warned the Americans that they would get a new Vietnam in Venezuela, and he assumes that they listened to him.

“Regarding the threats of a ground operation against Venezuela, I believe they know it would not end in their favour. Thousands, including Americans, would die. I don’t think Donald or anyone else wants that,” the Belarusian leader noted.

“I am grateful to Donald for speaking openly…”

Speaking about the reasons behind the decision to invade Venezuela, Alexander Lukashenko drew attention to the fact that “America is a very complex country.”

“I think this is most likely a concession by Donald Trump to the military,” the Belarusian leader believes. In his view, after the failure in Afghanistan, the U.S. military sought to rehabilitate itself, but ultimately once again found itself in “a very unpleasant situation.”

The president of Belarus noted that the global reaction to these events has been predominantly negative: “Yes, it is bad, disgusting — the reaction of the entire world. There were some who reacted more softly. But dissatisfaction and the reaction to this incident are negative for everyone. Everyone will draw conclusions from this. Everyone understands what is happening in this regard in the world. And everyone will think about how to protect their country,” Lukashenko said.

He said that Venezuela’s first lady, Cilia Flores, had initially been offered the option to remain in the country, but she chose to share the fate of her husband, Nicolás Maduro. Lukashenko stressed that he knows Cilia Flores personally, describing her as “a small but very courageous woman.”

After that, he recalled, she too was accused of involvement in drug trafficking. “So there you have the whole justice they have been teaching us about all our lives…” the president concluded.

However, Lukashenko emphasised another point: “I am only grateful to Donald for speaking openly: ‘Oil — we need oil!’ I say this with pain, because at the very beginning I was, to some extent, drawn into this situation. And I informed the Americans that the Venezuelans were ready to cooperate with you. There was no need to commit these foolish acts, from which it would be very difficult to extricate yourselves.”

According to the head of state, he was personally involved in contacts between the United States and Venezuela on the eve of the latest events. Lukashenko said that after meeting with the ambassador of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela to the Russian Federation, he conveyed messages from Nicolás Maduro to the American side.

And the Belarusian leader is convinced: “Everything the Americans wanted could have been done without a seizure.”

But, in his view, U.S. special forces deliberately carried out a demonstrative show of force.

“Everyone must do the utmost in their place…”

According to Alexander Lukashenko, Venezuela also saw paid collusion and betrayal. Therefore, the Belarusian leader once again warned that it is necessary to be extremely cautious so as not to be deceived again in the course of negotiations.

“But once again we have been convinced that we must be strong. And being strong is not just talk…” the president of Belarus noted.

“We are increasingly forced to spend money on weapons and on training our military.” The Supreme Commander-in-Chief said that today it is not only border guards who are protecting Belarus’s frontiers, but also servicemen who are “concentrated just behind the border, deployed as required, and defending our Motherland.”

All those present expressed their gratitude to the defenders of the republic by rising to their feet and applauding. Among the guests in the hall were male and female cadets of the Military Academy of the Republic of Belarus, as well as representatives of various security agencies.

Alexander Lukashenko stressed that as early as last year, roles had been assigned in advance at a meeting of the Security Council in case the president became unable to perform his duties: “Therefore, the Venezuelan scenario in Belarus is unrealistic. Even if this were to happen, we have everything  in place for such a case.”

According to Article 88.1 of the Constitution of Belarus, if the head of state is unable to perform his duties, these powers are transferred to the Chairperson of the Council of the Republic.

In the event of the president’s death as a result of an assassination attempt, a terrorist act, or military aggression, meetings of the Security Council are chaired by the Chairperson of the Council of the Republic, while state bodies operate under the coordination of the Security Council.

It is likely that at the aforementioned Security Council meeting, purely military mechanisms were also defined in case of various emergency scenarios.

“In order to prevent this from happening, we — the elite and society as a whole, first and foremost by moving ahead — must see and know our place. Everyone, in their own position, must do the utmost. Everyone. No matter what kind of ‘dictatorship or authoritarianism’ we may have, you cannot force everyone to do this. That is why we are destined to be at the forefront in this mad, turbulent world. If we understand this, everything will work out for us,” the Belarusian leader concluded.

Difficult negotiations

Quite recently, a series of Belarusian–American contacts took place, resulting in a partial easing of sanctions pressure on Belarus. Overall, the talks focused on preparations for a possible “grand bargain” between Washington and Minsk.

At the last meeting in December 2025 in Minsk with the U.S. administration’s special envoy for Belarus, John Coale, the Venezuelan issue was also discussed.

Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Valentin Rybakov said at the time: “They discussed how Belarus, and Alexander Grigoryevich personally, could help prevent another war from breaking out in the world. The president of Belarus spoke very openly with the American delegation on this topic and warned that involving America in such a war would simply mean a repeat of Vietnam, which is of interest to no one — neither the American people, nor the Venezuelans, and certainly not the international community as a whole.”

Prior to the talks, 123 prisoners were released, most of whom had been convicted for the events of 2020. After the meeting, on December 30, 2025, Alexander Lukashenko pardoned another 20 people.

However, current events in the world may affect the course of the negotiations.

Speaking on January 8, Lukashenko once again stressed: “If it weren’t for the spectacle… they wouldn’t have played us once again.”

The rally of the fugitives

Former opposition presidential candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who calls herself the head of the so-called “United Transitional Cabinet,” stated: “The era of Maduro’s criminal regime is coming to an end — and with it, the illegitimate Lukashenko loses yet another ally.”

Her office was also quick to announce that they were “rapidly building trustful relations” with the Venezuelan opposition.

The self-proclaimed “United Cabinet” of Tsikhanouskaya sent a new appeal to Minsk calling for a “roundtable on the transfer of power.” But emboldened by recent events, the fugitive opposition is now openly trying to threaten the Belarusian authorities:

“The arrest of Nicolás Maduro on 3 January has become a signal in the new global politics to every authoritarian regime… The lesson of Caracas shows that windows of opportunity close quickly, so ignoring the initiative of the roundtable could lead to scenarios in which normal civil dialogue may be replaced by other uncontrolled procedures, which could pose threats to the independence of the Republic of Belarus.”

The threat of a repeat of the “Venezuelan scenario” in Belarus clearly implies that any strike would come from the West. However, possibly due to excessive, uncoordinated zeal, the opposition radicals seem to have been reprimanded — and hurriedly tried to “change their stance mid-air.”

In any case, in an interview with Euroradio, Tsikhanouskaya’s so-called “deputy,” Pavel Latushko, suddenly began spinning a completely fantastical version claiming that the appeal supposedly referred to an operation to abduct Lukashenko in Minsk by Russia. However, all these “talking heads” of the fugitive opposition today have no real support inside Belarus and represent no one. The situation within the republic remains stable and calm. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for events on the external front…