Yerevan dreams of opening the Armenian-Turkish border But what is the reality?

Despite Türkiye's repeated statements that it would open its border with Armenia on the condition of normalizing Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, the official Yerevan still harbours illusions that this issue can be resolved outside the framework of a peace agreement with Baku. This was once again confirmed by the statements of the Speaker of the National Assembly, Alen Simonyan, which he made recently. "The Republic of Armenia reaffirms its commitment to promoting regional peace and stability and hopes that the ongoing negotiations with Türkiye on the opening of the border will yield results," Simonyan said.

The optimistic statements from the Armenian speaker came after the recent meeting of Armenian and Turkish delegations, which took place during the winter session of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly in Vienna on February 20. According to Armenian media, the discussions focused on issues related to normalizing relations between the two countries, as well as the importance of unblocking roads and other regional infrastructure. 

Clearly, for Armenia, the opening of the border with Türkiye is primarily beneficial from a trade and economic standpoint, especially considering that Yerevan has yet to decide on the exact model of its future economic development. Despite constant attention to the West, Armenia has still not made the decision to leave the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and the restoration of land connections with Türkiye could significantly increase the volume of export products to and from Armenia. Official Yerevan consistently emphasizes that Türkiye also benefits from the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border.

To recall, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia, Ararat Mirzoyan, in a comment to Anadolu Agency on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomatic Forum, specifically emphasized that the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border is of key importance primarily for the economic development of both countries. He made similar statements in June 2024 during a press conference in Estonia, assuring that Armenia has agreements with Türkiye regarding the "gradual normalization of relations" and the opening of the border. 

Ankara, on its part, maintains a clear position on this issue. In July 2024, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in a conversation with journalists upon his return from the NATO summit in the United States, stated that Türkiye could open the border with Armenia after a full peace agreement is concluded between Baku and Yerevan, and the Zangezur Corridor is launched. "Why not consider the issue of opening the border? We have already communicated all of this to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. We hope that a lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia will be reached soon, which Türkiye wholeheartedly supports. The opening of the Zangezur Corridor is the final step of this agreement. We want positive decisions on this path to be made without delay," Erdoğan said.

Thus, he sent a clear message to the Armenian leadership that the opening of the border directly depends on Yerevan's fulfilment of Baku's peace agenda. Until recently, there was a persistent impression that Ankara's messages had not been fully understood by Yerevan. It is no secret that despite the Armenian authorities' loud assurances of readiness for peace, actions have not followed the words. However, some optimism in this regard comes from the recent call by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to the Armenian public for a nationwide referendum and the adoption of a new constitution. 

In this context, it can be cautiously assumed that amendments could be made to the new constitution, excluding territorial claims against Azerbaijan. It is clear that opponents of Pashinyan's policies will not remain idle, the opposition will intensify, and street protests will resume. Therefore, if Pashinyan manages to hold a referendum and make the necessary changes to the Armenian constitution, it will become a decisive step toward achieving peace with Azerbaijan and normalizing relations with Türkiye. As of today, this is the only way to turn Armenia's illusions about the Turkish border into reality.