Yerevan will have to follow initiative of Baku and Ankara The 3+3 format is starting to breathe

The other day, Russian and Iranian Foreign Ministers Sergei Lavrov and Hossein Amir-Abdollahian respectively discussed the situation in the South Caucasus on the phone, and both interlocutors spoke in favor of returning to the idea of interaction in the region within the framework of the “three plus three” format (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia plus Russia, Iran and Türkiye).

It is worth noting that after the Second Karabakh War, it was Azerbaijan that initiated the “three plus three” format as a platform for peace in the South Caucasus, and fraternal Türkiye was the first to support this proposal. In general, the initiative envisaged at that time the formation of a unified cooperation platform for all countries in the region.

Voicing it in December 2020, President Ilham Aliyev emphasized that with such participation in the development of the region, there is a place for Armenia. Provided, of course, that its leadership, having drawn the correct conclusions from the results of the 44-day war, renounces its unfounded claims to foreign territories and begins to look to the future.

“If Armenia accepts and complies with this, then Baku and Ankara are ready to provide it with a place in the circle of further regional cooperation,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan supported the initiative of the Azerbaijani president.

A year after this, in December 2021, the first meeting of the Regional Consultative Platform was held, in which the deputy foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Iran, Russia and Türkiye took part. That is, everyone who received the offer, except Georgia, which then had tense relations with Moscow.

Tbilisi refused to cooperate in the proposed configuration, essentially hinting that as long as Russia occupies Georgian territories, cooperation with it is impossible. In particular, the then head of the Georgian Foreign Ministry, David Zalkaliani, said: “When we do not see any processes towards de-occupation, it is very difficult to participate in this format and talk about some kind of infrastructure projects.”

Moscow, however, actively supported the initiative of Azerbaijan and Türkiye in this format, but indirectly insisted on Georgia’s participation. For example, the Russian diplomat, at that time Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin (since 2012 he has represented the Russian Federation in direct negotiations with Georgia on economic and cultural issues) carefully hinted in a media interview in December 2021 that “... the format meets understanding by Türkiye, Iran, Azerbaijan and Armenia."

There is an impression, he emphasized, that Georgia’s political leaders are also interested in this, “and even a date has been outlined when it would be possible to get together at the level of deputy foreign ministers and continue work.”

Interestingly, the Georgian expert community at that time was increasingly inclined to believe that Russia’s interest in this format was due to its desire to emphasize the high degree of its own influence in the South Caucasus, and that it needed Georgia’s participation for the regional platform to function fully. Two years later, in the spring of 2023, Russian President Putin decided to abolish the visa regime with Georgia.

This event, although it did not lead to the restoration of previous relations between Moscow and Tbilisi, nevertheless reduced tensions between the two countries, having a positive impact on bilateral economic ties. As a consequence of this, the trade turnover between them today, according to the National Statistics Service of Georgia, has already exceeded $1 billion, which is 38.4 per cent more than the same period in 2022, and Russia is in second place among its largest trading partners.

This important indicator creates certain preconditions for the fact that Tbilisi may join the “six” format in the foreseeable future, which will increase the chances of the full functioning of this platform.

However, if Georgia’s participation in it still remains at the level of assumptions, at least until the country’s authorities make an official statement, then specifics have already appeared in Armenia’s position.

In any case, the reaction from Yerevan followed almost immediately after the Azerbaijani president, at a meeting in Baku with Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, emphasized the importance of resolving regional issues with the participation of the countries of the region in the 3+3 format. In response to this, Prime Minister Pashinyan said in an interview with Armenian Public TV that Armenia is ready for meetings in the 3+3 format.

“Of course, we are ready. At one time, an agreement was reached that the next meeting in the “three plus three” format would be held in Tehran,” the Armenian prime minister said. And such a promising statement by Pashinyan can only be welcomed, especially if we recall his categorical statements that “... issues of opening regional transport communications should not be discussed in the “three plus three” format in November 2021.

He even emphasized that, “Armenia was included in this format, and there has never been a case where discussions in this format were postponed or did not take place due to the fault of Armenia.”

What conclusion follows from Pashinyan’s statements, given that his statements often differ from the facts? For now, in our opinion, we can only assume that Yerevan is finally beginning to realize that joining the “six” format is another opportunity for the country to get out of the economic impasse and political isolation.

But along with this reality, the Armenian authorities must learn an important nuance: this chance is provided to them by Azerbaijan and Türkiye, with which they will one way or another have to restore relations. Yerevan probably understands that they have no room left for maneuvering and that it is pointless to delay negotiations and the signing of a peace agreement with Baku, because the bone of contention - Karabakh has completely returned under the legal control of Azerbaijan.

This means that Armenia will have to follow the peaceful common agenda of the region and join integration processes that are vital, first of all, for itself. After all, Armenia is the weakest link and the most vulnerable country among the six participating states of the South Caucasus platform, and here it makes sense for the leadership of the “country of stones” to take advantage of Baku and Ankara’s offer.

So, at the moment, everything indicates that in the near future a full-fledged mechanism of an inherently significant regional format, aimed at the interests of the entire South Caucasus, may be launched, which is so necessary in connection with current and future complex geopolitical processes.