"14 May was a milestone from which there is no return" Interview with Ahmed Alili

In an exclusive interview with Caliber.az, Ahmed Alili, Director of the Caucasus Policy Analysis Centre, shared his take on the recent phase of the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace talks and the prospects ahead up to the end of 2023 with Orkhan Amashov.

In Mr Alili’s view, 14 May, the date on which Baku and Yerevan agreed on the mutual recognition of territorial integrity and sovereignty with mathematically-defined specifications in Brussels, marked a critical milestone and there is no going back. Viewing the latest informal quinquepartite meeting of President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan, which also involved EU Council President Charles Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as an element within the wider Brussels-Washington processes, the expert believes the momentum engendered in early May will continue to be maintained further.

Mr Alili is of the view that Nikol Pashinyan is wary of signing a new document, due to his reputational risk cost, and the likelihood of an agreement concluded at the level of Foreign Ministers is more plausible.

The expert also characterised the Armenian Prime Minister, describing him as a politician with well-developed skills and a survivor who is mastering the art of overcoming his detractors, both internal and external.

On the subject of the rights and security of the Karabakh Armenians, Mr Alili contends that common ground could be found and the 14 May Brussels convocation has paved the way for moving closer to a long-awaited accord. The pundit is of the view that the 10 November 2020 tripartite statement no longer reflects the substantially changed facts on the ground and the progress in the Baku-Yerevan discourse, and, therefore, should be replaced with a new document, even if this is a concise one pager.

The conversation between Mr Amashov and Mr Alili also covered Russia’s role in the South Caucasus, the Zangazur dilemma, the French stance, the nature of the EU’s mediatory efforts and other issues bearing upon what is to come in the field of the wider landscape of the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace agenda.

Below is the link to the video version of the interview.