Armenia provoking Azerbaijan into new war
    EU to bear the blame

    ANALYTICS  21 March 2023 - 13:33

    Matanat Nasibova

    Armenia’s latest military provocation on the conditional border with Azerbaijan has once again shown that Yerevan is still aggravating the situation in the region as a whole, and in particular, it does not abandon the policy of terror against Azerbaijan.

    The Armenian Armed Forces opened fire from the positions located in Nerkin-And settlement of Gafan district at the positions of the border troops of the Azerbaijani State Border Service located at the Agbashyurd height of Zangilan district on the section of the Azerbaijani-Armenian state border passing through the Zangilan district on March 20 at 02:50 (GMT+4). A serviceman of the State Border Service, junior sergeant Ramin Manafov was wounded as a result of the Armenian side’s provocation.

    Despite the defeat during the 44-day second Karabakh war, the Armenian side periodically commits military provocations. The biggest one occurred at night on September 12, 2022 simultaneously in several directions - Dashkasan, Kalbajar, Lachin and Zangilan. The Armenian side hoped for military assistance from Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) member states, but no one expressed a desire to be involved in its aggression, moreover, the allies refused in a very sharp form. Realising that hopes for military support, even from Russia, which has always helped Armenia, burst like a soap bubble, the Armenian side committed less provocative attacks for a while.

    However, the incidents inspired by Yerevan have become much more frequent since late February 2023.

    The current aggravation of the situation by the Armenian side is not accidental. It coincides in time with the beginning of the two-year EU mission in Armenia. That is, Yerevan has become bolder, even insolent, having felt Europe’s unofficial support. The fact that any international mission sent with peaceful intentions implies an objective and equal attitude towards all opposing sides, not to mention the fact that the current EU monitoring mission in the South Caucasus has declared its goal "to ensure conditions conducive to the normalisation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan", are completely ignored. That is, any preference for Yerevan’s interests is out of the question. In any case, the Armenian side hopes for such “special” support and does not hesitate to regularly commit military provocations against the neighbouring country. Moreover, proceeding from the zero reaction of the "European missionaries", which is tantamount to silent support, Yerevan intends to continue committing provocations on the border with Azerbaijan and hamper the establishment of stability in the region. Yerevan hopes that Europe will help in any case.

    However, it is obvious that in the current situation, besides Armenia, the European Union bears political responsibility for aggressive attacks against Azerbaijan.

    According to the EU’s statement, its international observation mission arrived on the Armenian territory with a specific goal - to promote the establishment of stability in the region.

    However, in reality, quite the opposite situation is observed. Armenia’s recent provocation occurred on the conditional border in the Zangilan district because that area is monitored by the mentioned “observation mission”.

    Of course, Armenia carried out another military sabotage against Azerbaijan, being confident in the support of its Western patrons, primarily, France.  As is known, France continues doing its best, caring about the “security of the Armenians of Karabakh” and welcoming Armenia’s perfidious policy. The EU mission is in Armenia thanks to Paris.
    Taking all this into account, Baku has good reason to believe that the Armenian side hopes for the EU’s support and will continue committing armed provocations. Several factors point to this, first of all, Armenia actively buys military equipment abroad and intensively sends weapons and ammunition to Karabakh. Yerevan’s refusal to withdraw the remnants of its gangs from the region also testifies to its revanchist intentions. Armenia's systematic preparation for hostilities is confirmed by its authorities’ stubborn disregard of the points and conditions of the tripartite statement for more than two years.

    In fact, the Armenian leadership, through provocations, tried to ignite a new military conflict with Azerbaijan during the entire post-war period.

    By the way, a meeting of the foreign ministers of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia has been recently held in Moscow amid an armed provocation in the direction of the Zangilan district, during which Mirzoyan again made a number of provocative statements that are beyond the logic of the negotiation process.

    In particular, Mirzoyan groundlessly accused Azerbaijan of "preparing ethnic cleansing" and announced the need to send an international mission to Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region.

    Speaker of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia Alen Simonyan openly stated that he "does not see the possibility of integrating Karabakh with Azerbaijan".

    Armenian servicemen’s another provocation on the border with Azerbaijan, moreover, on Novruz holiday, which is traditional for Azerbaijanis, symbolises not only the arrival of spring, but also strengthens feelings of friendship, kindness and mercy, contributing to sincere relations among people, fully corresponds the militaristic policy of the Armenian leadership, which is alien to any human values.

    All this shows that Armenia has forgotten about the power of Azerbaijan’s "iron fist".

    However, if Yerevan wants another shameful defeat, it will certainly achieve it.

    This time the blow will be even more devastating after which the "country of stones" will finally forget about revenge.

    Neither the support of the EU nor the help of its patrons will help Armenia.



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