"Armenia seeks to keep Zangazur corridor closed forever" Russian expert on Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Dmitry Solonnikov, Director of the Russian Institute of Modern State Development.

- I would like to hear your opinion on several issues of the upcoming meeting of the presidents of Türkiye and Russia, which is expected this month. Should we expect serious progress regarding the Zangazur corridor, namely its opening, since the implementation of this project is in the interests of both Moscow and Ankara?

- Undoubtedly, the opening of the Zangazur corridor is in the interests of both Russia and Türkiye, and when we talk about the North-South route, we constantly mention President Vladimir Putin's speeches, where we talk not only about the exit from the Baltic Sea through Azerbaijan and Iran to the Persian Gulf and further to the Indian Ocean, but also about the second part of the corridor - the routes that we would like to see realized through Azerbaijan. And this is first of all the Zangazur corridor through the territory of Armenia to Nakhchivan and further to Türkiye and Mediterranean ports. This is an extremely important project, and when Putin, Aliyev and Pashinyan signed the Trilateral Statement in 2020, it was discussed, in particular, that it would be opened promptly.

However, almost three years have passed, and there is no corridor, and it is impossible to say that we have become closer to the implementation of this project. Rather, we have distanced ourselves from him. The current aggravation in the area of the Lachin road suggests that Armenia is trying to push through an international scenario of pressure on Azerbaijan, leaving the Zangazur system for the second or third stage. A few months ago, at the talks in Moscow, the topic of opening logistics routes was raised, however, as the events of recent weeks show, Yerevan does not leave harsh provocations, drawing Russian peacekeepers into it, in order, as I already stressed, to create international pressure on Baku, push through the opening of the Lachin road, and leave the topic of the Zangazur corridor for later, in fact, for never. Therefore, Putin and Erdogan can, of course, discuss this problem, but since they do not have levers of real pressure on the Armenian prime minister, the project is practically unrealisable in the short term.

- In your estimation, can the Russian Federation return to the grain deal, and if so, on what terms can it resume its participation in this project?

- Russia's unequivocal position is that it is ready to return to the grain deal as soon as all the conditions in its relation, which were originally prescribed a year ago, are fulfilled. I am referring to the lifting of restrictions on the work of Swift Russian banks, primarily the Rosselkhoznadzor (Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision), the resumption of insurance for Russian ships carrying fertilisers, grain, and food. And, of course, the free movement of Russian ships with food around the world, the lifting of the arrest on Russian fertilisers in all ports. After all this, yes, Russia will return to the grain deal. Unfortunately, Erdogan is unable to resolve this issue, as are Gutterish and the rest of the participants. Therefore, most likely there will be no return of the Russian Federation to this agreement.

- Is there still a possibility of resuming negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the mediation of Türkiye?

- The resumption of negotiations with Ukraine in the current situation is probably impossible - neither with the mediation of Türkiye nor with the mediation of Brazil, China or African states. Moscow clearly understands that the forces behind Ukraine believe that it can defeat Russia militarily, and therefore they do not want to hold any negotiations, counting on the surrender of the Russian Federation. The Western community deliberately provoked this conflict, realising that in a major confrontation, it would win, and Ukraine would lose. And since no one in the West feels sorry for Ukraine and it is seen there as expendable material, they see no point in agreeing on anything. The United States is getting richer in this conflict, and the loss of Ukraine is not a systemically significant factor for international politics. Consequently, everything will continue - the West will insist that it will defeat Russia, and so far no progress in this direction is visible.

- Will the Syrian topic be discussed at the Erdogan-Putin meeting?

- The Syrian topic may also be on the agenda of discussions, although now it is clearly not on the front pages of the current reality for either Russia or Türkiye. Therefore, I do not think that this topic will be topical at the talks.

- Is everything going well in Turkish-Russian relations and how do you see their future?

- It's a strategic relationship. And there are two points here. First of all, in the long term, Türkiye and Russia are in favour of creating a multipolar world, for both countries to be fully independent world subjects, determining their own policy and their relations with neighbouring states in the zone of their interests, rather than playing a single scenario drawn in Washington, as it is convenient for several states to do. In strategic terms, Russia and Türkiye converge, so we will have partnership relations.

As for the current technical moment, it should be taken into account that the economic crisis in Türkiye is quite strong and Ankara expects to cope with it with the help of the United States. And as we understand it, Biden has already promised billions of dollars through the IMF. In this regard, Türkiye will be bound by these obligations. There is a complex system of agreements, including Sweden's entry into NATO, the issue of the grain deal, and several other issues around which agreements are concluded between Ankara and Washington and its allies. Türkiye, as a rule, does not fulfil its promises until the obligations assumed by the same United States are fulfilled. That is, Türkiye is building its relations with the United States in this way, and Russia should treat the other world in the same way.

Consequently, given the fact that Russia and Türkiye have a lot in common strategically, we will move together on several long-term projects. But at the moment, Türkiye's difficult economic situation makes Erdogan more oriented toward US policy, and this is already an objective reality.