Any hope for progress under 3+3 format regional cooperation? Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

On October 23, a joint meeting of the Azerbaijani, Armenian, Georgian, Iranian, Russian and Turkish foreign ministers was to take place in Tehran within the framework of the regional 3+3 format. However, the day before, the Georgian Foreign Ministry in a statement said that its representatives would not visit Tehran. The first meeting in the 3+3 format took place last year in Moscow, also without Georgia’s participation.

Cooperation under the 3+3 format involves the creation of a regional system based on close relationships in many areas. However, this idea has not yet been promoted. Although many believe that there is reason for optimism.

We wonder how truly promising such a platform of cooperation is for creating peaceful relations between all participants and for the development of the region? Well-known experts from regional states shared their opinions on these issues with Caliber.Az.

Associate Professor of the Department of Modern East and Africa under the Russian State University for the Humanities, senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Lana Ravandi-Fadai believes that at present there is reason for optimism and for reviving regional cooperation under the 3+3 format.

“As we know, in September, Azerbaijan restored its sovereignty over the entire territory of the country (within the framework of international law), therefore, one of the most important controversial territorial issues in the Caucasus has been resolved. In addition, the Russian-Turkish and the Turkish-Iranian relations have significantly improved over recent years, and in recent weeks there has been an easing of tensions in Iranian-Azerbaijani relations as well. Armenia, having suffered a heavy defeat, took a more conciliatory position and ready to cooperate with its neighbors,” Ravandi-Fadai added.

As for Georgia's position, first, the ruling Georgian Dream party has a better attitude towards Russia than pro-Western President Salome Zurabishvili, who was recently accused by the Constitutional Court of violations due to her government-sanctioned trips to the West, which indicates a weakening of the president’s position in the country, the orientalist said.

“Therefore, theoretically, it is possible to soften Georgia’s position in relation to this format. Second, the first meeting under the 3+3 format, which took place in Moscow on December 10, 2021, was without Georgia. Consequently, even in the event of a boycott by Georgia, the next meetings under this format will still be held successfully if the remaining participants agree, which, in my opinion, can be fully counted on in the current situation.

It is worth noting that among the states of the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan is most interested in implementing the format. It is interested in the construction of a road and railway to the allied Türkiye with subsequent access to Europe, as well as for the implementation of other infrastructure projects.

These projects will also contribute to the rapid growth of interaction between the regional countries in infrastructure, trade and economic terms. Since many of these routes will pass through the territory of Armenia, this country will also receive great economic benefits from the transit of goods and services,” the expert is sure.

In turn, the political expert and director of the Center for Islamic Studies of the Caucasus, Shota Aphaidze, assesses the 3+3 format as important for Georgia and other countries in the region.

“Because it can provide so many economic opportunities. Georgia is able to receive very large financial dividends from such a format, because many aspects here will be related to energy resources. Since Georgia does not have its own oil and gas products, it will be able to obtain them through such cooperation at a good price.

“Plus, Georgia is a transit country, and within the framework of 3+3 projects for new railway transportation, land and air routes can be developed. Other economic benefits will appear as Georgia will take part in trade and economic projects with Iran, Türkiye, Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. That is, this is a very important format for the region,” the director of the center is sure. True, it is somewhat hampered by the political aspect concerning the so-called South Ossetia and Abkhazia, he elaborated.

“Personally, my position (like the position of many sensible experts) is that the opening of infrastructure, new routes, including through the territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, will help us in terms of rapprochement, restoration of relations, resolution of conflicts with our separatist regions. That is, we should not block, but on the contrary, meet such initiatives halfway, since thanks to their economic, cultural and humanitarian components, it is possible to reintegrate our territories,” Aphaidze says.

As for Armenia, our interlocutor thinks that, in principle, after the acute phase of the confrontation over Karabakh, which lasted 30 years, has ended, it will gradually join the work of the format, especially after Karabakh Armenians, who want to return to their homes calmly, Yerevan and Baku will sign a peace treaty guaranteeing mutual inviolability of borders.

“Then the issue of opening the Zangezur corridor through the territory of Armenia can already be resolved. I believe that this is a purely economic, logistics and infrastructure project. That is, 3+3 is a format that can remove political aspects and restrictions that hinder the implementation of economic projects. And such large countries as Türkiye, Iran and Russia will already cooperate more actively with the three South Caucasian states. And this is good,” the political expert concluded.