All eyes are on Türkiye’s upcoming local elections Gauging popularity

On March 31, Türkiye will hold nationwide local elections in which Ekrem Imamoglu—the politician who dented President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s aura of invincibility in 2019 by defeating the ruling party candidate to win the mayorship of Istanbul—will attempt to win re-election.

Although the main opposition candidate, Imamoglu, defeated the ruling AKP in the Istanbul elections, the opposition union in Türkiye was bruised and fractured by President Erdogan’s victory in the most recent presidential and parliamentarian elections in May 2023. In the last local elections held in 2019, a united opposition won the municipalities of the capital, Ankara, and the commercial hub of Istanbul.

Nevertheless, many believe that the upcoming elections on March 31 will result in Ekrem Imamoglu’s victory over his rival Murat Kuru, a close ally of President Erdogan and former minister of environment, due to his notorious role during the devastating wildfires of 2021. However, polls show Imamoglu and the AKP candidate, former minister Murat Kurum, in a close race.

The results will likely be partly shaped by economic woes driven by rampant inflation and by Kurdish and Islamist voters weighing up the government's performance and their hopes for political change. Opposition hopes of transformation were fuelled by local election results in 2019 when they defeated Erdogan's AK Party in the main two cities, Istanbul and Ankara, which the AKP and its Islamist predecessors had run for 25 years.

In turn, a victory for Erdogan’s party might spur the Turkish leader into pursuing constitutional changes that could allow him to secure another term in office. As in the case of previous local elections, local Kurds in Istanbul will likely cast their votes in favour of Imamoglu in some areas of Istanbul, given the reports that the main opposition party, CHP, had reached a deal with DEM (formerly HDP) over some areas of Istanbul, making it easier for DEM voters to support Imamoglu rather than DEM mayoral candidate Meral Danis Bestas.

According to the Turkish media, almost 11 million people are eligible to vote in the city, and turnout in both general and local elections is very high in Türkiye, at close to 90%. As a result, the ruling AKP and its rival CHP will put enormous efforts to win Istanbul's mayorship. Your vote could play a crucial role in this race, shaping the future of the city and the country.

Despite optimism regarding the Sunday elections, the opposition party CHP witnessed a significant decrease in popular support following the devastating results of the May 2023 elections, and support for the party has slipped to single digits.

Meanwhile, a new religious-conservative party, the New Welfare Party, or YRP, has also thrown its hat into the ring. Appealing to conservative and religious voters who have been disillusioned with Erdogan’s handling of the economy, it is expected to steal some votes from Erdogan’s candidates.

Unlike the heated race in Istanbul, in Ankara, the opposition is widely expected to maintain its hold on Ankara, where the incumbent mayor Mansur Yavas, who has also been named as a future presidential candidate, remains popular.

Both Mansur Yavas and Ekrem Imamoglu remain the most popular political figures among the secular youth of the country and do not hide their presidential aspirations in the next elections, possibly excluding President Erdogan. Therefore, losing Istanbul or Ankara in the current elections could influence their presidential aspirations.

In this vein, winning back Istanbul "is critical for Erdogan's plan to extend his grip on power and, simultaneously, to sideline his main political nemesis. No matter the results, any party that wins the mayorship of Istanbul can set the main agenda for the country's domestic policy.