Analyst: UK policy on Russia, Ukraine not to change after Johnson Caliber.Az from Minsk

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Yuriy Shevtsov, a Belarusian analyst and Director of the Centre for European Integration, about what will happen to Great Britain, and London's ties with Washington and Brussels after the resignation of Boris Johnson.

- Could Johnson's resignation from the post of prime minister change Great Britain's foreign policy?

- Fundamentally, the policy of Great Britain cannot change, because it is systemic. This is a special line of the country in Eastern Europe as a kind of operator of US interests, which arose as a result of the conflict between London and Brussels. And after the UK left the EU, such special relations with the US, on the one hand, and with Eastern European countries, on the other, are natural for London. For many years, considerable resources were pumped into Poland, the Baltic states, and Ukraine for this special role - both material and personnel. Therefore, a change in the head of the British government is unlikely to radically change the country's foreign policy towards Eastern Europe and Russia. But there may be some details. I would like to draw attention to the fact that Johnson enjoyed special support in his government from the defence and foreign secretaries. Therefore, his resignation is unlikely to significantly affect the policy of the British government on the Russian-Ukrainian issue.

- According to Sky News, Johnson announced his plans to retake the premiership. What do you think about this?

- I can't say anything, because his removal from power was the result of a conflict not on fundamental foreign policy issues, but because of some internal squabbles in the Conservative Party of Great Britain.

- The British Conservatives seem to want to get rid of the unpopular prime minister. Who can take this post?

- I find it difficult to answer. But I agree with you that the conservatives got rid of the unpopular prime minister - he created too many internal problems. However, internal problems can be traced not only in Great Britain, but also in the USA, France, and Germany. Basically, the voter reacts to the deteriorating economy and falling living standards, and they are now the result of the conflict with Russia. Of course, the voter thinks not about Russia, but his own wallet. The same thing happened in the UK. So they found the extreme in politics, it turned out to be Prime Minister Johnson. It is difficult to say who may come after him. I don't think anyone is going to answer that question right now because Johnson's resignation process is dragging on as he has to step down from two positions. Truly new people will come, probably, already in September. I suppose that, most likely, the new leader of Great Britain will pursue approximately the same foreign policy as his predecessor.

- That is, we should not expect any changes in the issue of Brexit?

- Of course. Brexit has taken place, and no one in the UK is even going to return to the EU. Unless Scotland decides...

- After all, Johnson all the time sought to rewrite the Northern Ireland protocol of the Brexit agreements, which seriously annoyed the States. Therefore, it is interesting to know how relations between London and Washington will develop after this.

- Complex issue. I'll explain why. In the fall, elections for half of the US Congress will be held, and preparations for them are taking place against the backdrop of a noticeable drop in Biden's rating. Therefore, most likely, in the elections to the US Congress, the opponents of the current president, that is, the Republicans, will be relatively in the lead. There, (former US President) Donald Trump has become active again, and one of his main accusations against Biden concerns the consequences of the conflict with Russia. Just the other day, Trump said that if he were president, there would be no war in Ukraine, there would not be such a confrontation with Russia, which is now taking place, and there would not be such a rise in current prices for food and fuel. Therefore, in the US, a Republican victory in this congressional election could lead to a hitch in the escalation of US-Russian relations. Just in time for the election, the battle between Ukrainians and Russians in Donbas should theoretically end. And most likely, it will end in favour of the Russian army. Therefore, it is likely that the strengthened Republicans will start a discussion on the problem of relations with Moscow. In this case, Russia will have more opportunities to intensify hostilities in Ukraine.

On the other hand, the US can force Zelenskyy to negotiate with the Kremlin. Against this background, the UK will most likely approach the time of the elections to the US Congress with a new leader of the Conservative Party and with a new plenipotentiary prime minister. And Johnson will no longer be acting. The new British leadership will have to deal with a changed US foreign policy. It is unlikely that anyone will refuse a confrontation with Russia, but the degree of its escalation may decrease. I do not think that in this scenario, the UK will start negotiations on returning to the EU. But the degree of confrontation between Britain and Germany with France may decrease. As a consequence, this may be due to a decrease in the degree of support for Ukraine by these three countries.

- A very complex configuration is obtained...

- I understand that it is difficult, but at the current stage, the situation seems to me to be just that. At the same time, there is another option: if one of the players plays for an aggravation so that Biden's supporters retain their leadership in the elections to Congress.

- At the same time, Biden has already expressed the hope that after the change of government, the US will maintain a "special" relationship with the UK. What does it mean?

- Over the years, the US and the UK have developed a special relationship. They concern both Brexit (Great Britain left the EU moving to close direct relations with the US), and the US and the UK have built a special relationship in the Far East. A kind of military block AUKUS was created there, consisting of the US, UK and Australia. Now, this block is replenished by Japan and New Zealand. That is, in the Far East against China, and in Europe against Brussels and Moscow, the US and UK have close relations. And nothing can completely break this scheme in the near future. It may be possible to slightly weaken the significance of this scheme, but it is impossible to break it - there is a long inertial period of development behind it.