"Armenia plays the role of a testing ground for Western political games" Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Recently, at a reception organized to mark the second anniversary of the EU observer mission in Armenia, the head of the European observers, Markus Ritter, stated, "Of course, Brussels is aware that Azerbaijan is not entirely happy with our presence. All I can say is that we monitor the situation at the border. We do not spy; we observe what both sides are doing, we assess the situation, and we report to Brussels. We do not spy, nor do we harm anyone." However, he did not elaborate on why the "Azerbaijani side is unhappy."

To discuss the goals of this mission and its undermining of the negotiation process, a Caliber.Az correspondent spoke with Russian political analysts.

According to South Caucasus expert Aslan Rubayev, the Armenian lobby in the European Union may be one of the forces attempting to push the idea of the need for a European presence in the region.

"Of course, how the mission's presence is perceived by both sides can depend on their own interests and goals. However, Azerbaijan has the right to view the mission’s presence as interference in its internal affairs or as support for the other side of the conflict, which, in fact, is true, since the European Union sometimes openly sides with Armenia. Essentially, by making such statements, the head of the EU mission confirms that Brussels is not interested in Baku’s perspective, and the presence of 'observers' is dictated by the interests of the countries that sent them, who are no longer peacekeepers if they do not try to maintain balance and admit it themselves," noted the political analyst.

According to another political analyst and publicist, Kirill Sitnikov, Moscow has repeatedly stated that Brussels is completely uninterested in the process of creating peace and stability in the South Caucasus. In reality, the EU is pursuing very clear, cynical goals aimed at undermining Russia's position in the region, weakening its influence in the South Caucasus. Moreover, this game is characterized as a provocation.

"The EU Mission has finally admitted what it needs in the South Caucasus. It’s clear that the EU is trying to woo Yerevan to its side, but Armenia, due to its geopolitical position, simply cannot represent the EU and its policies in the South Caucasus. Primarily because the majority of regional players are opposed to such a scenario, and they will do everything to prevent it. Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Iran all reject this idea. Even Georgia, it seems, does not want to be a lobbyist for this plan, as it sees it as a threat to its own interests. Russia will also not allow such an intrusion into its sphere of influence, no matter how vulnerable it may be at the moment. Perhaps temporarily, but always keeping countermeasures in mind as soon as an opportunity arises. The EU understands this perfectly, yet continues to escalate the situation, including irritating Azerbaijan with its 'binocular dances' at the border, to create the illusion of activity for Yerevan.

In this sense, one can only sympathize with Armenia, which is currently playing the role of a victim, a kind of testing ground for Western political games, where the outcome of events could be very different. However, the process of its 'surrender' as a partner has already begun. It’s quite clear that this process will be accelerated by the arrival of Donald Trump, who will soon start revisiting Biden's political narratives on the South Caucasus, once he gets around to it. It’s clear that Trump is against excessive pressure on Moscow and is interested in establishing friendly relations with countries located along Russia's borders. Azerbaijan fits this definition very well and is seen as a valuable partner for the U.S. Armenia, on the other hand, will be left out. The EU mission, influenced by Washington, will likely be shut down, and Yerevan will be forced to engage in active dialogue with Moscow and Baku simply because it will have no other option," concluded Sitnikov.