Armenia’s constitutional amendment is inevitable Armenian analyst speaks to Caliber.Az

The Washington agreements, which hold significant geopolitical and geoeconomic importance, are already beginning to be implemented. In particular, it was recently announced that the OSCE Minsk Group has officially ceased to exist. As a result, one key issue remains on the agenda, the resolution of which would lead to the signing of a comprehensive peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. That issue is the amendment of the Armenian constitution.

Is Armenian society ready for this step? Does Prime Minister Pashinyan have a chance to convince his country’s citizens of the necessity of this measure? These and other questions were discussed by a Caliber.Az correspondent with Armenian political analyst and public figure Ishkhan Verdyan.

– How would you assess the Washington agreements from the perspective of geopolitics and regional security in the South Caucasus?

– The Washington agreements signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan carry strategic significance not only for the South Caucasus but for the entire Eurasian continent. Their key impact lies in the fact that, for the first time in a long period, they open up the possibility of large-scale overland trade across the region. Until now, the majority of major cargo transport in Eurasia has relied on maritime routes, and the continent’s potential as a transit corridor has remained underutilised. Implementing these agreements creates a new logistical architecture: this not only accelerates freight transportation but also opens up prospects for high-speed passenger travel. In theory, a journey from, say, Beijing to Europe could take significantly less time.

– Opponents of Pashinyan’s policies see more threats than benefits in these agreements. Do you think the current approval rating of the Prime Minister among Armenian citizens will allow him to withstand these provocative attacks?

– In my view, the amendment of the Armenian constitution is already, in effect, a settled and inevitable matter. The experience of recent years has clearly shown that Baku will not agree to sign a comprehensive peace agreement as long as the preamble of Armenia’s fundamental law contains provisions that could be interpreted as a challenge to Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity.

Nikol Pashinyan understands the critical importance of this step for achieving long-term peace and stability in the region. Judging by his actions and statements, it can be assumed that an internal decision regarding the necessity of constitutional amendments has already been made.

– In your opinion, will the majority of the Armenian people vote in favour of constitutional changes in the upcoming referendum?

– The outcome of the constitutional referendum largely depends on how clearly Nikol Pashinyan himself understands the situation and how effectively he can communicate his position to society. Today, he is the undisputed leader of public opinion in Armenia: his words, even if they do not always receive direct support, rarely face open opposition.

However, the issue of Karabakh remains extremely sensitive and emotionally significant for Armenian society. Predicting exactly how the people will vote is quite difficult. Nevertheless, if Pashinyan manages to develop a well-thought-out communication strategy, clearly explain the essence of the changes, and highlight their importance for the country’s future, he has every chance of convincing the majority of citizens to support the proposed amendments.

– What are your thoughts on the prospects for implementing the Zangezur Corridor?

– In my view, it does not make much sense to discuss the Zangezur Corridor in isolation, as it is part of a larger project—the Middle, or Central, Corridor. Its significance should be assessed within the context of the region’s overall transport and logistics system.

Much has already been said about the significance of the Middle Corridor, and in that regard, it is difficult to add anything fundamentally new. However, one can assert the following: once this route is fully operational, its impact will be colossal. At some point, we will all realise that our previous model of life, logistics, and economic connections was incomplete, limited, and inefficient, while the new transport reality will radically change our perception of the region’s potential.

– In your opinion, how soon could a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan be signed?

– The answer to this question is very straightforward: based on the words of President Ilham Aliyev, I anticipate that the peace treaty will be signed immediately after the amendment of the Armenian constitution.