Azerbaijan to Armenia: Peace or misery, the choice is yours Contemplations with Orkhan Amashov

Azerbaijan's message to Armenia is unambiguous: we want peace and will work for it but, if Armenia thinks otherwise, it may continue to wallow in a quagmire of its own making at its own peril. So argues Orkhan Amashov, Caliber analyst, in the latest episode of 'Contemplations', dedicated to the historic military parade held in Khankendi on 8 November 2023.

On 8 November 2023, three years after delivering the famous 'Shusha, you are free' speech, which signalled a then-imminent Armenian capitulation and Azerbaijani victory in the Second Karabakh War, President Aliyev attended a historic military parade in the city of Khankendi, over which Baku restored its sovereignty on 20 September this year.

Grand in scope and eminently consequential in import, this very occasion, which commemorated the third anniversary of Azerbaijani Victory Day, signified something that mere words are insufficient to expostulate. No panegyric or encomium could convey the true scale of the grandeur that Khankendi witnessed that day. And it is not our intention to produce one. The scope is too vast to be fleshed out in words.

The images showing members of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces pounding the central square of Khankendi, the city which had been the epicentre of Armenian separatism for decades, spoke volumes. It is the self-same square from wherein the likes of Kocharyan, Gukasyan, Harutyunyan and Vardanyan used to deliver flamingly defiant, but ultimately futile, speeches, misleading local Armenians, making them believe that the idea of Azerbaijan restoring its control over the territory was a mere figment of Baku's imagination.

Aliyev's address at the parade was of historic significance, not just in timing and place, but also in its content. He, from the vantage point of 2023, reflected on the developments preceding the Second Karabakh War and the period from 2020-23.

Prior to the war, Azerbaijan had followed the time-honoured principle of "if you want peace, prepare for war", augmenting its military capabilities. Whilst actively engaged in peace negotiations, spearheaded by the OSCE Minsk Group, hoping for a breakthrough, Baku repeatedly insisted that a military resolution was not off the table. The OSCE Co-Chairs did not heed Azerbaijan's demands and failed to exert pressure on Armenia, supporting a false equilibrium between the occupied and the occupier.

The mediators used to say that Aliyev was not serious about a military solution and merely trying to placate his local audience. They were deeply wrong. Azerbaijan had also worked hard to enhance its legal argument, based on the right to self-defence over the years: numerous documents at different international institutions were adopted, reiterating Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, with reference to the famous four UN Security Council resolutions.

Consequently, the Second Karabakh War was utterly inevitable. With all peaceful avenues having been explored and exhausted, Azerbaijan was compelled to resort to military means to put an end to the Armenian occupation. The war resulted in the restoration of Azerbaijani territorial integrity, but the mission was not completed at that juncture.

Many in Azerbaijan were worried, back then, as to what would be the fate of Khankendi and other territories over which Baku had not yet restored its de facto sovereignty. There were also considerable concerns as to the presence of the Russian 'peacekeepers' on sovereign Azerbaijani soil, some predicting ominous consequences.

During his speech at the parade, President Aliyev reflected on this, stating that it would have been injudicious of him to reveal the plans at the time. It is very clear now that Azerbaijan had a finely-tuned strategic plan, with several scenarios being considered to achieve the full restoration of sovereignty over Karabakh. Within a time period of less than three years, Baku strengthened its positions along the conditional state border and also in Karabagh.

From March to August 2022, Azerbaijan, via a series of operations, in response to the illegal presence of the Armenian separatist junta based in Khankendi, assumed control over the commanding heights surrounding the temporary zone of the Russian contingent. Furthermore, the September 2022 border escalation gave Azerbaijan leverage along the conditional state border, which ultimately forced Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan to recognise Azerbaijan's territorial integrity in Prague in October of the self-same year.

On 23 April 2023, by installing a border checkpoint at the entrance to the Lachin Road, after months of tension, claims and counterclaims, Baku put a final touch to the restoration of its territorial integrity, assuming full control of its borders.

Then, in May 2023, Aliyev reiterated his demands for the dissolution of the separatist entity, simultaneously offering an amnesty. The summer was eventful, and mostly centred around the security risks involving the Russian-supported Armenian abuse of the Lachin Road, with the Aghdam-Khankendi Road being suggested as a viable alternative.

The gutlessness of Armenia and the recalcitrance of the separatist junta led to the climax in September. And, finally, on 20 September, Azerbaijan restored its sovereignty over the rest of Karabakh, subsequent to counter-terrorism measures, described in the West as a lightning offensive. The trophies displayed during the parade on 8 November - being a miniscule proportion of what was captured - show only too well how militarised that very grey zone had been, and how inevitable the application of localised legitimate force by Azerbaijan on the ground was.

As of November 2023, Azerbaijan has completed its mission and, from now on, will continue to strengthen its military capabilities, using its upper hand to achieve a peace deal with Armenia. As Aliyev himself said, Azerbaijan does not want another war, and it does not garner any form of territorial claim against Armenia.

Azerbaijan's message to Armenia is clear: in terms of accomplishing our main aim, we are done and dusted; if you want to benefit from the emergent opportunities, you are more than welcome; if not, go and wallow in a quagmire of your making at your own peril.

Baku's vision of a future Armenia is not a failed weak state, vulnerable to external influences, but one at peace with Azerbaijan, able to protect its own national interests and integrated into the nexus of regional communication lines. The future seems bright for Azerbaijan. So it can be for Armenia too. Why not indeed?