Azerbaijan reaffirms demand for Zangezur Corridor While Armenia questioning OSCE MG’s role

Caliber.Az has prepared another edition of “Sobitiya” (“Events”) show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev about the key news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries.

Azerbaijan - Armenia

Municipal elections were held in Azerbaijan. Over 16,000 candidates competed across 118 electoral districts. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev chaired a transport meeting, where he delivered a keynote speech outlining his plans. In his speech, he emphasized the issue of the Zangezur Corridor and reiterated his demand for Yerevan to fulfill its obligations under the trilateral statement, ensuring the corridor for unhindered route between mainland Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. “This is our demand. The Soviet authorities took West Zangezur from us in November 1920 and committed a crime against the Azerbaijani people,” President Aliyev added. 

The president then reminded of other crimes committed against Azerbaijan, including the establishment of the so-called "Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region" on Azerbaijani territory and the resettlement of Armenians to Azerbaijan by Tsarist Russia. At the same time, President Aliyev once again emphasized that Azerbaijan has no territorial claims against Armenia. Immediately following that, there was a press conference with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, during which he also commented on the issues of normalisation of the Armenia-Azerbaijan relations. Unfortunately, Pashinyan's statements again seemed to be filled with legalistic arguments, delivered in the most unfavorable manner. 

Commenting on Azerbaijan's call to formally dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group, Pashinyan initially made a reasonable point, noting that if there is no conflict, there is no need for a format to resolve it. However, he quickly reverted to his typical rhetorical maneuver, stating that it is necessary to ensure that the dissolution of the Minsk Group holds the same significance for Azerbaijan.

"If for Azerbaijan, this means a green light for making and deepening territorial claims against Armenia, what is the point of taking such actions?" Pashinyan said, citing the historical term "Western Azerbaijan" which is used in Azerbaijan as an alleged infringement on Armenia's territorial integrity. First of all, Western Azerbaijan is merely a fair tribute to history. Azerbaijan has no territorial claims to these lands and has never formalized any such claims legally or on the ground. 

On the other hand, the Armenian occupation of Karabakh is a real situation that lasted nearly 30 years, witnessed by the entire world, just as the de jure existence of the Minsk Group is also a factual reality. Thus, by refusing to dissolve the Minsk Group, Pashinyan is effectively admitting to the persistence of revisionist ideas. He also essentially disavowed his previous agreement to mutually renounce international lawsuits. However, the most outrageous statement came in relation to Baku's demand for unhindered access from Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan, as outlined in the trilateral statement. 

"There is mention of the forces of the Federal Security Service of Russia, but nowhere does it say that these forces must be present on the ground," he stated.

Following this logic, one could continue: "The Constitution of Armenia talks about government bodies, but nowhere does it say that they must be present on the ground." Perhaps, Mr. Pashinyan, you and all Armenian ministers, lawmakers, judges, and generals could simply relocate to Marseille and govern the country remotely? 

Ukraine

The slow widespread advance of the Russian army in Ukraine continues. Velyka Novosilka village in the Donetsk region was captured. After a year of bloody fighting, Chasiv Yar has also fallen. Russian troops have also announced the capture of Novomlynsk and Dvurechna settlements in the Kharkiv region. 

Meanwhile, Ukraine has intensified drone strikes on Russia's oil facilities, including an attack on an oil refinery in Ryazan. Meanwhile, an American peace plan has recently surfaced in the media, which was reportedly leaked by Trump’s team. According to the plan, Trump is set to have a phone talk with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in early February.  

The plan also includes discussions with Ukrainian authorities. If successful, a specific timeline is outlined. First, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to revoke the decree issued on September 30, 2022, which declared negotiations with President Putin impossible. 

Then, between February and mid-March, meetings are scheduled to take place among Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin. The meetings could take place either in a trilateral format or as two separate bilateral talks, where the leaders are expected to confirm the key parameters of the peace plan. During the negotiations, Trump will not block the delivery of military aid to Ukraine. 

Starting from Easter, which this year will be celebrated by all Christian denominations on April 20, a ceasefire is proposed to be announced along the entire front line. According to the plan, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are expected to withdraw from Russia’s Kursk region. The agreement between Ukraine and Russia will be formalized at an International Peace Conference, scheduled for the end of April.

By May 9, following the conference, both sides are expected to sign a joint declaration, which will mark the formal conclusion of the war. The terms of the peace agreement are reportedly as follows: Ukraine renounces any prospects of joining NATO and declares neutrality. NATO, in turn, will confirm its decision to bar Ukraine from membership at a special summit. 

Ukraine is set to become a full member of the EU by 2030, with the European side assuming financial responsibilities for the country’s post-war reconstruction. Ukraine will not reduce the size of its regular military units, while the US will provide support for their rearming and modernisation. Ukraine will forgo any military attempts to reclaim lost territories. Officially, Ukraine will not be required to recognize Russia's sovereignty over these territories. 

The US and the EU will lift some sanctions on Russia immediately after the peace agreement is signed, with the remaining sanctions to be lifted over the next three years. This primarily concerns restrictions on the import of gas and oil. Ukraine agrees to allow political parties that support the Russian language and advocate for peaceful coexistence with Russia to participate in elections. A special provision is made regarding the introduction of foreign peacekeepers into the conflict zone. 

This issue is proposed to be discussed separately after special consultations with both Russia and Ukraine. In a brief interview, President Putin also outlined his conditions. He referred to Zelenskyy as "illegitimate" and ruled out the possibility of signing a treaty with him, but allowed for dialogue through intermediaries. The Russian president also pointed out that only the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada could lift the ban on negotiations with Russia, as Zelenskyy's presidential term had come to an end. 

In the context of the territories Russia claims, he only hinted at the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which can be seen as a compromise compared to the conditions he presented last year—those also included the Kherson and  Zaporizhzhia regions. Nevertheless, many commentators agree that the main issue in the negotiations will not revolve around territorial claims, but rather the size of Ukraine's regular armed forces, as this will determine Ukraine's ability to defend its sovereignty in the future.

Middle East

Hamas has handed over three Israeli hostages and five Thai citizens to the Red Cross in Gaza. In response, Israel released 110 Palestinian prisoners. 

This marks the biggest prisoner exchange under the current ceasefire in Gaza. The Israeli government announced that it will not fully withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon, citing the Lebanese side's insufficient implementation of agreements, particularly the failure to deploy the Lebanese army in the region.   Trump proposed relocating Palestinians to new houses in Egypt and Jordan, either temporarily or for the long term. However, neither the governments of these countries nor Palestinian leaders supported the initiative.

The Arab Americans for Trump organisation, which encouraged Arab Americans to vote for Trump, urged against making "wild claims" against the Palestinians. The EU also opposed this initiative. However, it seems clear that Trump will continue pushing for such a solution, and this stance is coordinated with Netanyahu's government. Meanwhile, the Syrian Military Operations Command announced that rebel leader and head of the new administration of the interim government, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has been appointed president. 

For the first time since the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime, a high-ranking Russian delegation has recently arrived in Syria. The primary goal of the visit was to negotiate with the country's new authorities to ensure that Moscow retains control of the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim Air Base. As a result of the talks, the new Syrian government stated that Russia must restore the trust of the Syrian people through concrete measures — such as compensation and assistance with reconstruction.  

Press secretary for the Russian president Dmitry Peskov described the Russian delegation's trip to Damascus as important but declined to comment on what specific compensation measures were being discussed to restore trust. A Syrian source familiar with the negotiations told Reuters that Ahmed al-Sharaa demanded that Moscow should hand over ex-President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia. It seems that this issue is likely linked to Russia's agreement on the use of military bases in Syria. However, on this particular matter, Moscow is probably unwilling to make concessions.