Caucasian poker, Belarusian roulette, and Armenia-France sisterhood "Events with Murad Abiyev"

The editorial staff of Caliber.Az presents the next release of "Events with Murad Abiyev", covering the week’s main news relating to Azerbaijan and beyond.

Azerbaijan - Armenia

Armenian-Azerbaijani talks have been held. The second round of the talks between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, mediated by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, has taken place in the Washington suburb of Arlington.

Following the results of the last round, and the subsequent meeting of the heads of state in Brussels, a fundamental issue has been agreed upon - the recognition by Yerevan of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, together with Karabakh. It is agreed, but so far only verbally. And now Baku wants Yerevan to take practical steps not to interfere in the internal affairs of Azerbaijan - the cessation of financial support to the separatist regime and the withdrawal of the remnants of armed formations from the Karabakh region.

For his part, during his bilateral meeting with Blinken, Mirzoyan talked about the process of delimitation of the border based on the Alma Ata Declaration and the 1975 map, the withdrawal of troops from the border, and, quote, "the proper resolution of the rights and security issues of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh".

That is, Yerevan is trying to maintain its political influence over the Karabakh Armenian community and using international mechanisms to make its reintegration with Azerbaijan effectively impossible. And at the same time securing its border, which, as we remember, is conditional.

It seems to me that such a primitive stratagem made US diplomats squeamish. Indeed, if you have neither power nor law on your side of the bargain, there must at least be some artistry. By artistry I mean, of course, a more subtle game than screaming about the threat of genocide.

The offer of Baku to realize the passage of cars of the International Committee of the Red Cross to Khankendi through Aghdam is evidence that Baku presses Yerevan and the remnants of the separatist regime on the ground, demonstrating that the process of the reintegration of the Armenian population of Karabakh region will be realized irrespective of anyone's will.

Traditionally, while negotiations were underway, the remnants of the Armenian gangs carried out a provocation, shelling Azerbaijani Army positions in Aghdam and wounding our soldier. And the Azerbaijani Army's dignified response, killing five saboteurs for one, outlines future responses to provocations, which will only accelerate Yerevan's awareness of the inevitability of Baku's full restoration of sovereignty over the Karabakh region. Incidentally, two of those liquidated were members of the Armenian Armed Forces. Azerbaijan has already handed over their bodies, and according to Armenian media reports, they will be buried in Yerevan. I can assume that this fact was revealed at the negotiating table in Arlington as evidence of Armenian interference in the internal affairs of Azerbaijan.

What has been agreed in Arlington? No specifics so far. Both Blinken and the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said at the end of the meeting that the sides had made progress in understanding the draft treaty and that there was agreement on additional clauses. However, Blinken noted that hard work remains to reach a peace deal. If we take the sequence that has been observed since the May round as a basis, we can expect Charles Michel to point out specific details at the meeting of heads of state in Brussels on July 21, followed by a corresponding statement at a press conference by Nikol Pashinyan. Meanwhile, other representatives of the Armenian authorities will vie with each other to demand guarantees from Baku. Then the Armenian side will make another provocation, waiting for a slap in the face. Then another round will come.

France

The fact that Baku and Yerevan, despite all the difficulties, are moving towards a comprehensive peace is proved by the hysterical outburst of the French president, Emmanuel Macron. Speaking to the Armenian community of Marseilles on June 28, he, like D'Artagnan to Anne of Austria, swore eternal loyalty to Armenia and the Karabakh separatists. He even hinted at military assistance, referring to the appointment of a military attaché in Yerevan. "I will continue my efforts even if I am almost the only one in the international family with this agenda", said the Head of the French Republic, which only confirms that practically none of the Western leaders supports him in the Armenian issue.

Moreover, the ungrateful French people have prevented their leader from savoring what has been his foreign policy triumph by causing widespread unrest in the streets of their cities. The reason was the killing of a 17-year-old Arab teenager by the police for allegedly disobeying law enforcement officers by not stopping his car at their demand. I note that the teenager was unarmed and had no criminal record. In other words, the police action is nothing more than an indicator of the racial hatred and Islamophobia that prevails in French society.

Incidentally, during the riots in the Paris suburbs, unknown assailants attacked a film crew of AzTV (Azerbaijan's state-run channel). They took away their camera, and when our reporters tried to get their equipment back, they threatened them with firearms.

In the midst of this chaos, Macron found nothing more sensible than to go to an Elton John concert. It seems that with such a reaction he wanted to say that the matter is not worth a single cent, or at any rate, there is no need for any increased attention from the head of state. Which, by the way, is also a sign of hysteria. Macron doesn't seem to be able to do anything else. And this will backfire one day.

Russia

Who interrupted Prigozhin's mutiny and was there a rebellion at all? Prominent experts ponder these questions and so far no answers have been found. A lot of the story of the PMC owner is initially taking place shrouded in mystery and something about the nature of events can be inferred only from a tiny tip of the iceberg. So what do we have on the surface?

So, the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has mediated and saved the Russian capital from the threat of a bloody assault. The Belarusian leader agreed to receive the Wagnerians on his soil under guarantees of immunity.

Everything seems to have worked out: Moscow has not been sieged, life goes on. However, there are too many foreshadowings in the air of what is yet to come. A certain gestalt has been imprinted on the public consciousness. And it looks like this: there was a revolt against the Kremlin, but no one was punished, which creates additional tension for the power system in crisis. And no matter what pro-Kremlin pundits say, Vladimir Putin has suffered enormous reputational damage. And if before the strain had been eased a little on the warpaths, now the strain has completely spilled over into politics. And this means that X, who is behind Prigozhin, has acquired some carte blanche for the next steps. The Belarusian president has only added fuel to the fire. When telling the military about the details of the negotiations with Prigozhin, he presented it as if he actually rescued the panic-stricken Russian government. Lukashenko seems to be the man who diverted the threat from Moscow and became a hero in Russia. So he boosted his international credibility.

Moreover, he has clearly expanded the prospects of his political activity already directly on the Russian scale. The question remains whether the Wagnerians, whom he has graciously sheltered, will not become a threat to the sovereignty of Belarus. I think in this case Lukashenko will do his best to reduce their combat effectiveness to the needed minimum. Though it can be raised again, if necessary... The scenario seems fantastic, but the threat to Moscow may not have passed completely by yet. Military experts say that the main obstacle to the Wagnerians' march on the capital was the Oka River, the forcing of which would have cost them huge casualties. The only direction from where the march to the capital does not encounter water or other significant natural obstacles is from the west, i.e. from Belarus. It turns out that Prigozhin and his soldiers are now much closer to Moscow than at the time of maximum approach to it from the south. This makes me guess that the Wagnerians did not intend to take the capital at all, and this time they have quite achieved their goal: they have given their discontent an institutional character and increased the threat to the Kremlin. If we look at Prigozhin's rebellion from this perspective, not only does it not look like a staged operation, but it is generally in progress.

The silence of Defence Minister Shoigu and General Staff Chief Gerasimov, who look like a pair of truant losers in this story, is surprising. The lack of a statement from the defence minister may indicate two possible circumstances. The first is that Putin is not allowing Shoigu to say his word, wishing to emphasize that there are claims against him and that he is, in fact, hanging by a thread. The second is that the minister himself is reluctant to explain anything. Maybe he wants to step down from such a troublesome post and avoid responsibility for incompetent actions on the front. In the theory of screenwriting, there is a notion of "MacGuffin", discovered by Alfred Hitchcock and referring to some object or some person, for the possession of which there is a struggle. And so, in the course of the film, we discover that this object has no value in itself and serves only as a tool for developing the plot. Perhaps Shoigu and Gerasimov are also a kind of MacGuffin, or in this case a false target. Allowing criticism and scolding of the minister is an agreeable circumstance, thus creating an uncomfortable life for Shoigu, so as not to become too arrogant. But to allow a demand for his resignation and, still less, to agree to such an ultimatum is outside the rules of the game. Giving up his minister's head at the request of his former "chef" is a blow to his own credibility.

On Prigozhin's part, accordingly, to demand from Putin what he cannot give is to challenge Putin himself. Maybe Prigozhin, at some point, instead of stopping his campaign against the defence ministry, instead stepped it up? Maybe he did so when he realized that he had already fulfilled his role and now the Kremlin no longer needs dual power on the front. In fact, the battles for Bakhmut allowed the Russian army to stabilize the front line and in many ways rehabilitate the failures of the first phase of the war. The Kremlin apparently could not get rid of the mercenary boss so quickly and easily, fearing unintended consequences at the front, such as a mutiny by his underlings. Could this also explain why Prigozhin was allowed to travel around the country making fiery speeches? If so, it also suggests that, apart from Prigozhin, the Wagnerians have quite a few ringleaders capable of revolt.

So, in this scenario, Prigozhin has some sort of temporary head start, and that is what he has used to get out from under attack. If we assume that there is also an X in the Kremlin who is ready to take advantage of the situation for personal purposes, Putin's indecisiveness and his agreement to suspend the issue seem to become understandable. The triangle "Lukashenko - Prigozhin - X" - maybe this is how the anti-Putin coalition now looks like. But who, after all, is this X? We often want to see one evil genius behind the scenes, cloaked in black, shuffling sullenly along the nocturnal corridors of the Kremlin. But everything may be much more prosaic - there may be more than one X, and there may be several, one or even more for each agency.

At the same time, in the speeches that followed the riot, Putin did not actually change his rhetoric and still called the organizers of the mutiny traitors. He praised the army and did not mention Lukashenko's role. Now, it seems, the Russian president will try to restore his credibility, for which he will need reprisals against those who allegedly collaborated with Prigozhin.

By the way, last week was full of rumours about the arrest of General Surovikin, not the last man in the army, who, by the way, favoured Prigozhin. According to some reports, he was even aware of the forthcoming mutiny. However, the Defense Ministry said the General was interrogated and released; however, this fact by itself shows that the case was not left hanging. But now whether the Russian president will manage to get to Prigozhin himself depends on many factors, including the position of the Belarusian leader.

Ukraine

In the meantime, there is almost no change on the Ukrainian front. Kyiv claims isolated successes in various parts of the front line. We are talking about an advance of one and a half to two kilometres deep into the Russian army's defence line. According to Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar, the defence forces, having seized the strategic initiative, are advancing in all directions near Bakhmut.

At the same time, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said in an interview with the Washington Post that he was angered by comments by Western officials on the slow pace of the offensive. He also noted that Ukraine needs more weapons, such as ammunition, for a successful offensive, and US F-16 fighter jets.

Ukraine's irritation at the lack of aid from the West has perhaps never been greater. Zaluzhnyi's resentment also confirms rumours that he was against launching a counteroffensive without American fighter jets, hence the split on the counteroffensive issue among Ukraine's top military and political leadership. Under these circumstances, it would hardly surprise anyone if a decisive strike against the Russian defence line does not follow any time soon. Whether Zaluzhnyi will introduce his select troops into the operation without air support remains one of the burning questions on the Ukrainian agenda. If Kyiv decides not to do so, the conflict is likely to be frozen indefinitely.

Although there may be some certainty after the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 12, where a new military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be adopted.

NATO and Sweden

What is not to be expected at the next summit is Sweden's participation as a full member of the alliance. Once again, before the expected consideration of the Swedish case in the Turkish Parliament, the Holy Quran was publicly burned in Stockholm. And while before it was done by a very angry Danish troll with a flame thrower, now, apparently for greater effect, the sacrilege was entrusted to a refugee from Iraq.

What do the Swedes want? Some propose the version that the Scandinavians don't really want to join NATO, so they themselves frustrate their admission to it. Well, if very hypothetically, anything is possible, especially as Finland has already been accepted into the alliance, and that country serves as a natural barrier between Sweden and Russia. Though on the other hand, as I have already mentioned, Swedes have been seen to be fiercely fighting with sacred texts even before their eastern neighbours joined NATO.

Personally, it seems to me that the kingdom is trying in this way to defend its paradigm of a democratic state in which higher values such as freedom of expression take precedence over national interests. I doubt its sincerity, especially since by doing so the Swedes are only demonstrating a parasitical approach, shifting the hard work of convincing the Turks about their membership to the Americans.

So far, the Turkish Grand National Assembly has refused to consider ratifying Sweden's membership in the North Atlantic Alliance