CSTO and EAEU: Armenia in grip of Russia Moscow intensifies pressure on Yerevan

Armenia's movement towards the European Union (EU) and NATO forces Russia to increasingly rein in Yerevan, ramping up diplomatic pressure. Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu stated that Armenia's accession to the European Union would mean its obligation to join anti-Russian sanctions and weapons supplies to Ukraine. "Armenia would have to align itself with European sanctions and military-political decisions of the European Union, including frameworks like the Common Security and Defence Policy of the EU, as well as the European Peace Facility. This fund financially supports the armed forces of the regime in Ukraine," he told journalists.

Moscow's concerns about Armenia potentially joining European sanctions are not unfounded, especially considering the EU's willingness to financially incentivize Armenia through the so-called European Peace Facility (EPF). In July 2024, the European Union Council decided to provide Armenia with military assistance of 10 million euros via the European Peace Facility. Additionally, in February of this year, it was revealed that the EU is considering offering Armenia a second tranche of the same amount (10 million euros).

This fact has caused dissatisfaction in Moscow, and it is likely no coincidence that Sergei Shoigu placed particular emphasis on the economic factor, stating that Armenia would face financial problems if it were to join the European Union. "Armenia will lose many privileges if it joins the EU, as it will have to exit the EAEU. By the most modest estimates, leaving the EAEU during the negotiation process for joining the EU will cost Armenia 30-40% of its GDP. This will cause critical damage to the country’s economy, and the decline in production, contraction of the labor market, rise in unemployment, and inflation will lead to a sharp reduction in the standard of living. At the same time, Armenia should not expect generous subsidies from the EU, given the state of the European economy," warned Shoigu, reminding of the almost sixfold difference in Armenia’s trade turnover with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the EU.

For comparison, it is worth noting that Armenia's trade turnover with the EAEU countries amounted to $12.7 billion in 2024, while its trade with the European Union countries reached $2.3 billion. The fact that Armenia's economic benefit comes from its participation in the EAEU gives Russia a carte blanche to remind Yerevan that it is being supported by its hand. Moscow, it can be assumed, effectively forced Yerevan to postpone discussions on the draft law to initiate the process of joining the EU. 

To recall, on February 12, the Armenian parliament voted in favor of a bill supporting European integration, followed by a strong reaction from Moscow. At that time, Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov firmly stated in an interview with journalists that Armenia could not be a member of both the EU and the EAEU. Therefore, it is likely that the discussion of the draft law on Armenia's EU membership has been put on the back burner. It seems that Armenian authorities are wary of further irritating Moscow and have generally reduced the level of discontent with Russian policies. Furthermore, Yerevan plans to participate in high-level Eurasian events. For instance, Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan will visit Russia on April 17–18 to attend the CIS Parliamentary Assembly session, and Armenia's Prime Minister will attend the May 9 anniversary celebrations in Moscow to mark the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War. In this context, Armenian experts even talk about a rapprochement between Armenia and Russia. Thus, the Armenian leadership continues to try to sit on two chairs, seeking to simultaneously receive political, military, and economic preferences from both the West and Russia.

The fact that Moscow is unhappy with such a prospect is further confirmed by statements made by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, as voiced recently. The Russian diplomat addressed Armenia’s security issues, drawing attention to Yerevan's uncertain position within the CSTO.

"As for Russia's obligations to Armenia within the framework of the CSTO and in bilateral format, they all remain in force, and everyone is well aware of this. At the same time, I remind you that Armenia itself froze its membership in the CSTO, which, I believe, does not contribute to Armenia's security, which is also obvious," said Zakharova.

From the words of the Russian diplomat, it is clear that Moscow sees no alternative for Armenia in matters of security except for CSTO membership. This means that Russia firmly holds Armenia in its grip and demands clarity in the country's future foreign policy course. Whether Yerevan will decide on its choice in a timely manner is a rhetorical question. In any case, it will not be possible to sit on two chairs.