Global Risk Report 2025: Kazakhstan faces high risk of armed conflicts Insights from Kazakh experts

According to the Global Risk Report 2025, Kazakhstan, along with 11 other countries, will face a high risk of armed conflicts over the next two years. As a result of the Global Risk Perception Survey (GRPS) 2025, Kazakhstan is among the countries where the threat of armed conflict is considered one of the most significant in the coming two years. The report highlights that the high level of uncertainty in the context of current global conflicts, escalating tensions, and the lack of international efforts to resolve them create risky conditions. Kazakhstan, located in Central Asia, is facing challenges related to potential proxy wars and economic pressure from major global powers.

The research and report were prepared and published as part of the World Economic Forum held in Davos from January 20 to 24, 2025. However, one might wonder how seriously these forecasts should be taken when viewed from within Kazakhstan itself. Is there truly a high risk of the country being drawn into an armed conflict in the next two years?

These questions were addressed by prominent Kazakh experts in an exclusive interview with Caliber.Az.

Political analyst Aidar Amrebaev noted that the likelihood of Kazakhstan being involved in military conflicts is quite high, given the turbulence in international relations and the escalating confrontation between the West and Kazakhstan's immediate major neighbours—Russia and China. These countries are listed as revisionist powers in the U.S. National Security Strategy.

"But it is unlikely that Kazakhstan would initiate a conflict. The country's leadership is doing everything in its power to avoid provoking aggression from any side. However, the situation may be different if our country becomes a platform for settling scores between leading international powers. Kazakhstan is currently at the epicentre of hybrid information wars, which, under certain circumstances, could become triggers for violent actions, such as public unrest or inter-ethnic conflicts," the expert stated.

In this regard, Amrebaev believes that classifying Kazakhstan as a country with an increased risk of conflict is not without merit, although there are countries and regions in the world with even higher levels of tension.

As political analyst Kazbek Beisebaev notes, it is crucial to first acknowledge the events that unfolded in Kazakhstan in January 2022, which had the potential to plunge the country into chaos.

"At that time, no one expected such a thing to happen in peaceful Kazakhstan, but nevertheless, it did occur. I would like to remind you that the trigger for these events was the increase in gas prices. Immediately after, there were discussions about armed radical forces and terrorists. So, in response to your question, I’ll say right away—nothing can be ruled out," the political scientist admits.

He also emphasized that before these January events, there had been armed terrorist uprisings in various regions of Kazakhstan.

"In 2011, there were events in the Aktobe region, the cities of Taraz and Atyrau; in 2012, in Almaty and the Atyrau region. In 2016, there were events in Almaty and Aktobe. Today, Kazakhstan has seen the establishment of adherents of an untraditional form of Islam for the Kazakh people.

At the same time, I wouldn't say that there is a threat of Kazakhstan becoming involved in any conflict. We don't have any tensions with our neighbours. On the contrary, relations are developing, and trade turnover is growing. However, the possibility that some external forces might try to ignite an internal conflict cannot be ruled out. And this was clearly demonstrated by the January events of 2022," Beisebaev concluded.