Is Wagner preparing for surge to Polish-Lithuanian border? Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

The private military company Wagner has been relocated to Belarus to capture the Suwalki corridor, the head of the State Duma Committee on Defense (in the recent past - the head of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation), Col-Gen Andrei Kartapolov told "Evening with Vladimir Solovyov" talk show.

The talk is about the land border between Poland and Lithuania with a length of 70 kilometers. The Suwalki corridor, named after the Polish city of Suwalki, separates Belarus from Kaliningrad region.

“It is obvious that Wagner went to Belarus to train the armed forces there, but in fact, not only and not so much for this. There is such a Suwalki corridor. And this corridor, in which case, we really need it… We are talking about the fact that the shock fist is ready, which this unfortunate corridor will be taken in a matter of hours,” said Kartapolov.

According to the parliamentarian, the decision to transfer the disgraced PMC to Belarus is “a subtle move by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief”.

“And here again we are ahead of them. We sometimes like to say: `Tisk, tisk’, they are like this, and we do nothing. Colleagues, we do everything. Only we do this without squealing in the media… but quietly, calmly, thoroughly, and gently,” Kartapolov assured.

Meanwhile, on July 14, the Belarus Defense Ministry reported that Wagner PMC specialists began to train the territorial troops of the republic in various military disciplines, including tactical shooting, engineering training, battlefield movement skills, and tactical medicine.

How many mercenaries arrived in the country, the department did not specify. According to the monitoring group Belaruski Gayun, at least 60 vehicles were involved in their movement, including pickups, large trucks, and buses for transporting people.

In turn, the deputy coordinator of the Polish intelligence services, Stanisław Żaryn, warned that they are monitoring the situation "to know how many Wagnerites will end up in Belarus".

He estimates that there may be several hundred at the moment. Stanisław Żaryn confirmed that the mercenaries have begun to train the Belarusian military and are settling in prepared camps, but the final scale of their participation in the country is still unknown.

The Lithuanian State Border Guard Service also monitors the movement of Wagner fighters in Belarus, Giedrius Mishutis, a representative of the department, said. According to him, there are no reasons for additional actions to protect the border, since security measures have already been beefed up due to illegal migration.

Andriy Demchenko, Spokesperson of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, also assured that the country's border service records the movement of individual units of the Wagner PMC in Belarus "to understand the places of deployment, the tasks of the mercenaries and their number".

Last year, the Canadian military-analytical publication Globe and Mail called the Isthmus of Suwalki "NATO's Achilles heel".

“In the event of an outbreak of hostilities between East and West, or if Putin simply decides to put a spoke in the wheels, Russian troops would be able to seize this corridor, cutting off the Baltic states from their neighbor and NATO ally Poland.

“Such a move would be aimed at linking Kaliningrad with Belarus and, consequently, with Russia. And he will also deprive the Baltic countries of military and other NATO assistance delivered by land. This will mean the beginning of a war between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance, which the parties have so far avoided in every possible way, despite all their statements and actions,” the authors of the publication believe, calling on NATO to “act very carefully”.

But, on the other hand, in the event of such an attack, Moscow can say that it’s not us, it’s some kind of armed group, but not from Russia… So, is such an attack possible, in principle? That is, can Putin decide on it, and in which case? How will Poland, Lithuania, and most importantly, the leadership of NATO behave in such a situation?

Foreign experts agreed to answer these questions of Caliber.az.

Gleb Parfyonov, head of the security department at the Ukrainian Doctrine Center for Political Studies, believes that attacks on NATO countries are theoretically possible, but unlikely to occur in practice.

“Lukashenko values his status very much, which allows him to benefit. So, he received nuclear weapons on his territory, he was able to arrange the deployment of the most experienced unit in Russia. And these are only the most telling moments there are many more of them. He has something to lose, and I'm sure this was discussed with Wagner.

“But if we assume that an attack does happen, then it is important how Washington reacts directly to this because how other members of the alliance will feel depends on its decision. If they fight back, then the question arises - what to do next, since there is a risk of the start of WWIII? And it is precisely because of this that Washington may react to the attack in a way that its allies in Eastern Europe would not want. But let's hope that the theory remains a theory,” the security expert reassures.

At the same time, he considers the actions of the Baltic countries and Poland quite logical. Wagner is what is called the unknown in the equation - it can again go to Moscow from the territory of Belarus, and attempt to attack Ukraine or the same NATO countries.

“But in this case, we are most likely dealing with purely internal showdowns in Russia. For Wagner, the most important thing now is to wait and find the right moment to return there again. We are already seeing purges among the Russian military top brass, and Wagner escaped this fate. The Russian government may be still expecting a revolt of the military since the officers have already publicly expressed dissatisfaction with the Kremlin,” Parfyonov said.

In turn, an officer of the Israel Defense Forces, and a military observer, Yigal Levin, noted that the most important and key factor in this matter is the quantity factor.

“That is, everyone is talking about the Wagner group as if it were some kind of a group of divisions or army corps. The bulk of this PMC, when it fought in the Bakhmut direction, was made up of convicts. Tens of thousands of people who died there. The Wagnerites-Prigozhins themselves - professional mercenaries who fought in Africa and Syria, in total, before all the losses - several thousand people. At best, a brigade,” says the expert.

According to him, 700-800 people arrived in Belarus. And scenarios began to appear - how these people are going to be used.

“Like groupings are created for attack, for defense, a corridor - not a corridor, Ukraine - not Ukraine, preparation - not preparation, and so on, but you should always remember about the quantity factor. That is, we are not talking about a so big group.

“And they can work as instructors if they become such for Lukashenka’s security forces, which is quite possible and expected because the Wagnerites are people with combat experience gained in Syria, Libya, Ukraine, and the Central African Republic. But there is no need to consider the Wagner group as an association of troops that can move somewhere today or tomorrow and threaten any state near Belarus,” the Israeli officer is sure.