Pashinyan's 2024 New Year address A shift toward “real Armenia” 

On December 31, 2024, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan addressed the nation with his New Year’s message. Notably, unlike in previous years when his December 31 messages also included Christmas greetings, this year's message focused solely on the New Year. While it’s too early to draw definitive conclusions, one might wonder whether Pashinyan intends to deliver a separate message on January 6, when Armenians celebrate their main Christian holiday. 

However, if no such message is issued, we might speculate that Pashinyan is undergoing a significant shift in the country’s ideological direction. This could mark a further step in his campaign against the religious influence in Armenia, particularly against the backdrop of the government's ongoing conflict with the current Catholicos. We will continue to monitor the situation and observe any further developments.

Overall, the New Year’s address of the prime minister draws attention with its leitmotif – "Real Armenia." In the rather short, two-page message, this phrase appears a remarkable eleven times! The essence of the speech can be summarized with the Prime Minister’s words: "Real Armenia, the Republic of Armenia with an area of 29,743 square kilometers, must become the guiding ideology not only for the government and the parliamentary majority but also for every citizen of the Republic of Armenia." A little further in the text, Pashinyan adds: "We must change and transform, dear people, dear citizens of the Republic of Armenia." It is noteworthy that for the first time in several years, after the defeat in the 44-day war, Pashinyan did not use the words "Artsakh" and "Nagorno-Karabakh" in his New Year’s message. Moreover, no significant references to this "issue" were made. In this context, it’s interesting to trace the evolution of Pashinyan's New Year’s messages over the past few years.

Thus, immediately after the defeat in 2020, Pashinyan, seemingly encouraged by the presence of Russian peacekeepers in the grey zone of Karabakh and the preservation of Armenian troops in the region, was quite optimistic in his New Year’s address — so much so that it even included the word "optimism": "We must build Armenia in a new way, we must build Artsakh in a new way, we must build our optimism in a new way, and I want us to start 2021 with exactly this mindset."

A year later, he still maintained an upbeat tone: "The resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the full protection of the rights of the Armenians of Artsakh is our strategic goal," and "Let us raise our glasses to a free, peaceful, reborn, and restored Armenia and Artsakh."

By December 31, 2022, there was a noticeable decline in Pashinyan’s mood, likely caused by the action of Azerbaijani eco-activists on the Lachin road: "2022 was a year of serious challenges. The illegal blockade of the Lachin corridor put our brothers and sisters in Nagorno-Karabakh and all of us in a difficult situation." Notably, during this address, Pashinyan did not raise a glass for "Artsakh." Instead, he only said, "Long live the Republic of Armenia."

The following year, after the voluntary relocation of Armenians from the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan to Armenia, Pashinyan even expressed regret: "I also want to ask forgiveness from each of you, from all citizens of the Republic of Armenia, from all our brothers and sisters who became refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh, for the pain you have endured in recent years."

This period also marks the first hint of a reevaluation of the ideology of Tseghakronism: "As the duty of the head of state, I must tirelessly and constantly repeat that we need to understand many things more comprehensively and fully, we need to reconsider many things, in order to irreversibly understand that the homeland is the state."

Baku's firm and consistent policy of restoring its full sovereignty has brought the Armenian Prime Minister to reality, and since then, he has repeatedly spoken on various platforms about his concept of a "real Armenia," which should replace the "mystical Armenia" (Pashinyan himself referred to it as "historical," but let's not be too strict with him on this matter). He even hinted at the need to amend the Armenian constitution, comparing its territorial claims against neighbors to a red cape for bulls. In short, Pashinyan has started working to stimulate changes in the Armenian public consciousness, promoting the idea that it is unacceptable to seek to expand one's borders at the expense of internationally recognized territories of neighboring countries.

However, this trend has not become all-encompassing or consistent. We have repeatedly witnessed how Pashinyan has backtracked on his own thoughts about the constitution and, moreover, has deviously attempted to accuse Azerbaijan's Constitution of having territorial claims against Armenia. At the same time, in 2024, steps were taken towards the militarization of Armenia and, more importantly, turning the country into a stronghold of the collective West. With the efforts of the U.S., France, and India, weapons, including offensive ones, are being imported into Armenia. On an institutional level, Armenia's relations with the West were solidified with numerous agreements signed in Brussels in April 2024 by Pashinyan, von der Leyen, and Blinken, in which the military component plays a significant role.

Interestingly, in his New Year’s speech on December 31, 2024, Pashinyan did not mention military development even once. One might get the impression that Pashinyan is not seeking to raise his party's rating through a revisionist discourse. This, however, is a false impression. In reality, Pashinyan wants to show the people his loyalty to the ideas of revanche not through words, but through actions. We have already written multiple times that Pashinyan’s team is plotting a plan for a small victorious war against Azerbaijan, in which Armenia hopes to seize a small piece of land at the conditional border. Such an action would significantly boost Pashinyan’s rating, demonstrating that he is capable of tough decisions and "defending the state's interests" through force. Pashinyan’s inner circle believes that these actions would strengthen Armenian society's false belief in the possibility of a full-scale revanche, namely, the future reoccupation of Karabakh.

It is no coincidence that the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, once again highlighted the dangers of the militarization of Armenia in his New Year’s address to the nation: " If we were to note the most worrying moment for us this year, of course, it would be Armenia's armament. There is no logical explanation for this. Armenia has faced a complete fiasco with its policy of aggression. Their military defeats in 2020 and then 2023 should have shown them the right path. We were trying to do this and are continuing our efforts to this day. I have repeatedly urged them both in my official statements and during our negotiations with the Armenian side to stay away from this dangerous path. The foreign circles and foreign countries provoking them and pushing them to attack Azerbaijan again will not stand behind them. They simply will not be able to. No force in this region can compete with us militarily. Therefore, let me say again, it is not too late for them to turn back from this dangerous path. The South Caucasus should be a region of peace, security and cooperation. Armenia's large-scale and rapid militarization, the supply of deadly weapons can disrupt this peace, the possible peace."

Thus, Azerbaijan is prepared to repel any armed provocation from Armenia. Any such move from Yerevan threatens not only the final defeat of the Armenian army but also serious internal destabilization within Armenia, with a significant risk of the ruling elite being removed from the political stage. After all, Armenia's handlers do not seek a small revanche — they want a large-scale fire. In the event of provocations from Yerevan, Azerbaijan will do everything possible to ensure that the fire is contained within the boundaries of "real Armenia," which will be extremely painful for Armenian society.