"Protests in Georgia will not lead to civil war" Expert opinion

In an interview with Caliber.Az, Georgian political scientist Archil Sikharulidze offers insights into the current domestic political situation in Georgia. He discusses the ongoing opposition protests, the West's role, and the government's stance on European integration. 

— How do you assess the current domestic political situation in Georgia? Is there a possibility that the opposition protests could escalate into a civil war?

— The street protests in Tbilisi are planned by part of the opposition and politically motivated NGOs in Georgia. I believe that, at this point, they have developed a very clear plan for conducting the rallies, and it is important for them to be prolonged to maintain overall tension in the country. Naturally, among those gathered, there are some radicalized citizens ready to attack the police forces. The protests mainly take place in the evening, which is another attempt to escalate the situation, so that their organizers can later claim that the peaceful protest was suppressed by the law enforcement agencies. However, I do not think the protests will lead to a civil war in Georgia. There will be no war unless the army and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, which are on the side of the government, become involved in the situation.

— What is the role of the West in this situation?

— The West's involvement in Georgia's domestic political situation is latent. The West understands that if the Georgian Dream remains in power, they will have to work with them. Therefore, they are silently waiting for the outcome of the current standoff.

— Is Prime Minister Kobakhidze's statement about the potential banning of opposition parties in Georgia directly related to Western policy?

— It seems to me that there will be no bans on opposition parties. There was a statement about the possible banning of the United National Movement (UNM). So, it's only about one party, although I am confident that the UNM will not be banned either.

— Is official Tbilisi rejecting European integration?

— The Georgian government has not rejected European integration; that is an incorrect assumption. The Georgian authorities are tired of constantly being asked to start a dialogue with the EU and are ready to sign any document related to European integration.

— What does the suspension of strategic partnership from the US mean for Georgia?

— It means nothing, primarily because Georgia does not have a free trade agreement, a visa-free regime, or even direct flights with the US.

— Can we assume that Georgia is gradually moving closer to Russia?

— There is no rapprochement between Georgia and Russia. Not everything that happens in the relations between the West and Georgia can be considered as a rapprochement with Russia. This is a simple PR campaign meant to counter Western criticism.

— In other words, Georgia will maintain a balance between the West and Russia?

— I think Georgia will continue negotiating with the EU and the US to get the most favourable deal for European integration.