Putin’s trip to Belarus could be a signal for a new assault on Ukraine Launch-pad against neighbours

On December 19, Russia's president Vladimir Putin made a rare visit to Belarus to meet his counterpart Alexander Lukashenka, reportedly to discuss security-related issues and deepen bilateral cooperation in this field. The visit came amid fears that Vladimir Putin could potentially open the second front from Belarus against Ukraine as Russian troops suffer tactical losses in the unprovoked war. Putin's arrival on an icy runway in Minsk came hours after Russian forces launched a swarm of attack drones at critical infrastructure in Kyiv, which provoked emergency blackouts in a dozen Ukrainian regions.

Since the inception of the war in Ukraine, Russian forces have used Belarus as a launch pad for their abortive attack on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv in February, and there have been Russian and Belarusian military activity there for months. As expected, none of the leaders talked about the war, in turn, devoted their answers to the ever-closer economic and defence alignment between their two former Soviet states — already formally allied in a somewhat nebulous "union."

Although Belarus did not officially enter the war against Ukraine in the past several months, it did shortly allow to use its territory to launch attacks and later provided vocal political support to Moscow in its unprovoked war against Kyiv. Amid Putin's visit to Minsk, Ukraine forces tightened up the defence of its border with Belarus over fears that Russia may be preparing a fresh attack.

Nevertheless, Belarus is coming under tremendous pressure from Moscow to step up its support in the "special military operation,” though the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the reports "as totally stupid, groundless fabrications." The Kremlin has for years sought to deepen integration with Belarus, which relies on Moscow for cheap oil and loans, but Lukashenko had resisted outright unification with Russia despite being a key ally in the war.

The heavy losses of Russia on the ground and retreat from previously occupied territories stirred speculation that Putin would increase the pressure on Minsk to open a second front against Ukraine. This also comes in the wake of Putin taking a more public role in the war by visiting his operation's headquarters to sound out military commanders. Shortly before Putin visited Minsk, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and defence minister Sergei Shoigu visited Belarus amid recent joint troop exercises.

Moscow and Minsk have also set up a joint regional unit of forces in Belarus and held numerous military exercises. Three Russian warplanes and an airborne early warning and control aircraft were deployed to Belarus last week.

During a vis-à-vis meeting with Lukashenko, Putin said they discussed forming “a single defence space” in the region but denied the pressure on the neighbouring state to join the war campaign in Ukraine. To support this claim, Putin reiterated, "Russia does not need Belarus to support its ground operation in Ukraine." Nevertheless, Belarus could still benefit Moscow, as it still possesses some stockpile of Soviet-era weaponry to be transferred to the Russian troops. Indeed, with the vast fatalities in Ukraine, Russia desperately eyes additional weaponry to compensate for losses.

Lukashenko, meanwhile, needs help with his country's ailing economy. It was a rare trip to Minsk by Putin, who usually receives Lukashenko in Russia. At one point, Lukashenko called Putin an "older brother," praised Russia as a friend that had "held out its hand to us," providing Belarus with oil and gas at discounted prices. "Russia can manage without us, but we can't manage without Russia," he said.

Moscow has kept up its war effort despite Western sanctions and the supply of Western-made weaponry such as long-range artillery systems, air defence systems, anti-ship missiles, etc. In this vein, Minsk's deeper engagement in the war campaign against Ukraine sounds rational from the point of view of Moscow. Such engagement could also bring some economic dividends to Belarus, given the current financial crisis amid international sanctions. According to the local media, bilateral trade turnover between the two will hit a record of over 40 billion U.S. dollars by the end of this year, while Russia remains the largest investor in the Belarusian economy with over 4 billion dollars.

Undoubtedly, Moscow is keen to have Belarus enter Ukraine's northern flank when Ukraine is trying to cover the east and south. However, the sophisticated weaponry that Ukraine acquired from the West and the Ukrainian forces' effective methods of conducting modern warfare tactics is a serious deterrence factor for Belarus.

Lukashenka is still determining if its armed forces could make a breakthrough in this war in a short period. Hence, the possible losses on the ground could trigger problems at home. Therefore, Belarus's full participation in the unprovoked war against Ukraine is unlikely soon. Although Vladimir Putin's visit to Minsk would enhance Belarus's further integration with Russia, it is still a complex task for Moscow to drag Minsk into the full-scale war in Ukraine.