Revenge as strategy: Armenia conceals preparations for new aggression Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Recently, Caliber.Az obtained comprehensive evidence and reported that Armenia is preparing for a new war with Azerbaijan, focusing on equipping weapons and infrastructure for a potential offensive on the border. In this context, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan’s visit to India and his remarks about peace negotiations with Azerbaijan appear to be a blatant farce. The official reason for Mirzoyan’s visit to India, Armenia’s main arms supplier, is formally unrelated to new arms purchases, but it clearly points to Armenia’s intention to strengthen its military partnership with the countries of the Armenian "axis of evil" — India, France, and others.

In an interview with the Indian publication Wion, Mirzoyan stated that Yerevan is placing significant emphasis on defense matters and is interested in acquiring Indian weaponry. According to him, this is not aimed at undermining the interests of third countries and is not connected to peace negotiations with Azerbaijan. "As for the normalization process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, there I should say that we are very close, I mean Armenia and Azerbaijan, are very close to finalization of the draft of peace agreement between the two countries," said Mirzoyan. He emphasized that if they manage to first finalize the agreement and then sign it, it would become one of the most solid pillars of peace and stability in the South Caucasus. 

However, the question arises: Can Armenia’s seemingly contradictory stance — advocating for peace while preparing for war — be trusted? This issue was raised by a Caliber.Az correspondent in discussions with foreign political analysts.

Israeli expert, political science candidate, and editor of the website Aziznews.com, Yuri Bocharov, believes that Armenia has been continuously preparing for war since its defeat in the 44-day war and the final loss of Karabakh. The country is dominated by revanchist sentiments, and most importantly, active foreign sponsors seek to reshape the South Caucasus to suit their interests.

"It can be observed that over the past four years, Armenia has significantly changed its arms procurement strategy, diversifying the sources and volumes of supply. While Russia was once the main arms supplier to Armenia, in recent years the country has been actively cooperating with India and France. Naturally, these procurements, coupled with regular provocative statements, raise concerns in Azerbaijan. Official Baku views Armenia's rapid rearmament as a manifestation of revanchist ambitions, which hinders the peace process between the two countries," noted the political analyst.

In his opinion, Armenian society is marked by both panic and revanchist sentiments, particularly among certain political circles. These sentiments, fueled by France, could intensify with the increase in the supply of modern weaponry to the country. The question then arises: which path will Armenia take, and how will Azerbaijan respond, understanding that it may need to act preemptively to nip any military provocations in the bud.

"Therefore, Azerbaijan, while constantly calling for peace with Armenia, must be ready at any moment to repel aggression from any adversary. Unfortunately, Armenia is creating the conditions for serious concerns. So, all of Mirzoyan's 'peaceful' statements are an obvious bluff, especially considering how long Yerevan has been talking about discussing the points of a peace treaty, but in reality, the negotiations are at a standstill and show no progress," emphasized Bocharov.

Kazakh political analyst Olzhas Amirjanov believes that Armenia is currently seeking to secure the support of influential powers, and the visit to India is a clear example of this.

"A few years ago, when Nikol Pashinyan came to power, he actively sought to attract one of the Asian powers — China or South Korea — as Armenia's political patron. However, the term 'Peking duck' became a meme symbolizing the failure of his 'Chinese' policy. These countries refused to cooperate, realizing the futility of engaging with an isolated country. In the end, Yerevan managed to establish relations with India, playing on Delhi's conflicting feelings about strengthening ties between Azerbaijan and Pakistan. India portrays itself as Armenia's political ally not by coincidence — it successfully sells Yerevan its far from best, often untested weapons. Therefore, Ararat Mirzoyan’s statements in India are undoubtedly hypocritical and lack any convincing rhetoric.

Mirzoyan went to India after it became clear that the U.S. was not ready to support Armenia's revanchist plans — they simply have no time for Yerevan right now. Thus, despite ambitious plans, any provocations on the border will lead to a disastrous failure for Armenia — both militarily and politically. Moreover, the global Armenian lobby is currently going through a difficult time: the world is focused on Ukraine and other pressing international issues," concluded Amirjanov.