Rising struggle in Armenia and corruption scandal in Ukraine Caliber.Az weekly review

The editorial team at Caliber.Az presents the latest episode of the programme “Events” with Murad Abiyev, which covers the main news stories of the week.

Azerbaijan – Armenia

The seventh Consultative Meeting of Central Asian Heads of State is starting in Tashkent. Following a long-standing tradition, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, is also participating in this event. This marks the third consecutive participation of the Azerbaijani leader in this regional summit, reflecting the high authority and the key role that Azerbaijan plays for the entire Central Asian region.

On November 15, President Aliyev had held a meeting with the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, during which the two leaders discussed the full spectrum of bilateral relations.

Ahead of the meeting, Ilham Aliyev gave an interview to the National News Agency of Uzbekistan. He emphasised the strategic importance of Azerbaijan’s relations with the Central Asian countries, particularly with Uzbekistan, describing them as allied and fraternal.

According to him, Azerbaijan and Central Asia form a single historical, cultural, and geopolitical space, and the Caspian Sea does not divide, but rather unites, the region. He also noted that the growing significance of the Middle Corridor strengthens the interconnection of states and opens up new opportunities for joint development.

The meeting in Tashkent should also be viewed in the context of recent developments—namely, the summit of the United States and Central Asian leaders and discussions on a range of issues related to economic projects connecting the West, and particularly the U.S., with the region. As a result of the Consultative Meeting, a substantial package of multilateral documents is expected to be adopted.

Caliber.Az will closely follow the progress of the meeting and publish materials covering its outcomes.

Meanwhile, the closer Armenia gets to parliamentary elections, the fiercer the struggle between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government and the opposition becomes. Over the past week, former presidents Kocharyan and Sargsyan gave extensive interviews, accusing Pashinyan of the collapse of Karabakh policy, particularly of derailing the negotiation process which, in their view, could have indefinitely prevented Azerbaijan from pursuing a military resolution of the Karabakh conflict.

In response, Pashinyan accused Armenia’s former leaders of having ties to Russian intelligence services and promised to release details of the negotiations that would refute the opponents’ claims. According to him, he will do this by the end of the year—once all formalities for the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group are completed.

In fact, both sides are now timing the play of their strongest cards so that the most powerful ones are revealed just before the elections. And here, it must be said, Pashinyan seems to have a richer selection. This includes the initialling of a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, the absence of shooting along the border, and the announcement of the start of construction on the “Trump Route.”

The opposition’s arsenal is still rather limited: endless interviews and continuous accusations. Slightly more inventive was the pro-Russian oligarch Samvel Karapetyan, currently in prison, who last week sent his nephew to give an interview to Tucker Carlson, in which the nephew described Pashinyan as almost the Antichrist.

It now seems obvious that the alliance of Moscow — the Russian-Armenian diaspora — and the Armenian Church will try to strike Pashinyan’s government openly, aiming to find and exploit its weakest points.

At the same time, the closer the elections approach, the higher the likelihood of various forceful provocations, including along the border. In this context, Pashinyan’s government must remain especially vigilant: monitoring possible internal dissent within the security structures and tracking the activity of semi-military terrorist formations such as VOMA.

Ukraine – Russia

While the situation in Pokrovsk has somewhat stabilised, both sides continue exchanging strikes on each other’s infrastructure. As a result of a Russian shelling of Kyiv, one of the “Iskander” missiles hit the territory of the Azerbaijani Embassy in Ukraine, causing significant damage to the diplomatic mission. Fortunately, no staff members were injured.

In response to the incident, the Russian Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Mikhail Yevdokimov, was summoned to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry and presented with a formal note of protest. It was emphasised that similar missile attacks, which violate international law and norms, have occurred previously. Baku demanded that Moscow conduct an investigation and provide detailed explanations.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has been rocked by a major corruption scandal. On November 10, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP) announced the exposure of a corruption scheme involving the state energy company Energoatom.

At the centre of the scandal are ministers of the current Ukrainian government and, notably, a long-time ally of the country’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, co-owner of the Kvartal 95 Studio, Timur Mindich. The Ministers of Justice and Energy, along with several top managers of Energoatom, have been dismissed. As for Mindich, reports indicate that he has managed to flee abroad.

This is undoubtedly a serious reputational blow to Zelenskyy, although the reports from NABU and SAP do not mention the Ukrainian president by name. Adding intrigue to the situation is the fact that these anti-corruption bodies are closely linked to the United States. This automatically raises suspicions that Washington is already sending Zelenskyy an open signal that his continued tenure as Ukraine’s president is undesirable. The situation was further intensified by the arrival in Kyiv of a high-ranking FBI officer, who held a meeting with the leadership of NABU and SAP.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump found it necessary once again to distance himself from the possibility of funding Kyiv. According to him, Washington no longer provides direct financial aid to Ukraine, instead receiving payment for weapons deliveries through NATO. Even more importantly, Trump stated that the situation in Ukraine no longer poses a risk of escalating into a world war.

Taken together with his parallel statement about his intention to resume nuclear testing, this could indicate that Washington views the nuclear competition with Moscow primarily as a matter of parity, rather than further escalation in the context of the Russia-West confrontation—contrary to what European capitals might want.

What Trump and Putin appear to agree on even more is the apparent desire to see a change of power in Kyiv.