"Trump to reset European politics" Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

On January 20, Donald Trump will return to the White House, a prospect that some experts associate with the potential resolution of conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Meanwhile, Armenia is also holding its breath, trying to anticipate how Washington's policies might shift under Trump.

What does Donald Trump's return to power in the United States mean for the world? To explore this question, a Caliber.Az correspondent reached out to international political analysts.

Russian political analyst Renat Savin believes that Trump's rise to power in the U.S. could significantly reduce global tensions.

"Guided by the directives of the Biden administration, the collective West has spent several years actively fueling conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, the South Caucasus, and other parts of the world, or at least turning a blind eye to these processes. For instance, in regard to the Middle Eastern conflict, the U.S. in 2024 took a contradictory stance: at times supporting Israel, then attacking it with criticism and even denying assistance, while secretly negotiating with Iran for several years. As a result, real peace in the Middle East remains elusive to this day.

In negotiations with Kyiv, the Biden administration has largely pushed Ukraine to continue the war with Russia.

In the South Caucasus, Washington acted even more treacherously, waving the mediator's flag in negotiations for appearances, while in reality, it actively encouraged Yerevan to rearm, promising greater military support and political cover, and urging it to sever ties with Moscow.

Therefore, I believe that Trump's arrival could put an end to the alarming trajectory of U.S. involvement in military conflicts, a policy led by the not-so-savvy politicians of the Biden administration, simply because such a policy has not brought clear benefits even to the U.S. itself.

As for the South Caucasus, I think tensions here will also slightly decrease, since, judging by Trump's behavior, he does not have particularly warm feelings towards Armenia. Moreover, there are strong grounds to believe that Trump will pursue a course of developing relations with Azerbaijan: he is a realist and understands well who the true power broker is in the South Caucasus. In this case, Armenia will have to temper its ambitions and avoid provoking Baku," emphasized Savin.

According to Belarusian political scientist and PhD in political science Svetlana Korniechenko, Europe showed its worst side in 2024, demonstrating that it is entirely dependent on Washington's will.

"Macron has been pursuing a destructive policy in the South Caucasus for several years, in several French colonies, and provoking the war in Ukraine with various statements, which, despite their senselessness, have a negative impact on the behavior of European countries. He has driven Israel to the brink of fury, with relations between Paris and Tel Aviv on the verge of rupture.

The European Union, on the other hand, managed to spoil relations with two of the three countries in the South Caucasus.

European politics is indeed undergoing a crisis of minds and leadership, but at the same time, it continues to attempt to resolve issues, thereby generating an even greater wave of conflicts and instability across various parts of the world. Therefore, in my opinion, in 2025, Europe needs to define its position in the global political game, including in the South Caucasus, and decide what it wants to be: a destructive force like Macron and Joe Biden, passive like Olaf Scholz, or something greater, like figures such as Angela Merkel or François Mitterrand. Or even a constructive leader in the South Caucasus, like Ilham Aliyev.

Ultimately, it seems to me that Europe's new leader will simply be Donald Trump, who will reset European politics, realign it in a more constructive direction, and set the course to work closely with players like Baku, Tbilisi, and Ankara, rather than seeing them as enemies and threats. As for the war provocateurs in the South Caucasus, by 2025, they will be out of a job," concluded Korniechenko.