Ukrainian Operation "Spiderweb" and Musk-Trump showdown in Washington Caliber.Az weekly review

The Caliber.Az editorial team is pleased to present the latest episode of the program “Sobitiya” (Events) with Murad Abiyev, highlighting the week’s top news concerning Azerbaijan and beyond.

Azerbaijan – Armenia

On June 2, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev took part in the official opening ceremony of several events within the framework of the Baku Energy Week, including the 30th anniversary International Caspian Oil and Gas Exhibition. In his welcoming speech, President Aliyev called the signing of the 1994 “Contract of the Century” a turning point in Azerbaijan’s development, laying the foundation for the country’s political and economic success. He emphasised that this success was made possible thanks to the visionary strategy of the national leader Heydar Aliyev.

Highlighting Azerbaijan’s achievements that have strengthened its geopolitical significance, Aliyev pointed to the creation of extensive infrastructure. He described the Southern Gas Corridor—a 3,500-kilometre pipeline stretching from Azerbaijan’s Caspian shelf to the shores of Italy—as the crowning achievement of these efforts.

The president also addressed the topic of renewable energy, noting its planned share in the country’s energy system by 2030—35%, or 6.5 GW in absolute terms.

Speaking about green energy, the president touched on an important nuance. Anticipating criticism from paid activists eager to target our country under the banner of clean air, Aliyev stated: “Our agenda regarding COP29 was very pragmatic. It was far from populism and false narratives. It was based on pragmatic calculations of countries’ demand for fossil fuels.”

Echoing President Ilham Aliyev’s position, a congratulatory message marking the anniversary of the exhibition was sent by Donald Trump and read aloud by Wyatt Toehlke, Senior Advisor to the U.S. State Department. The message stated, among other things:

“We share the view that natural gas will play an essential role in meeting rising global energy demands in the coming decades, and we support the right of every nation to leverage its resources for its own prosperity.”

Meanwhile, the struggle between Prime Minister Pashinyan and the Church continues in Armenia. After verbally lashing out at the provincial priest Galstanyan, the prime minister has now decided to target his number one goal — Catholicos of All Armenians Garegin II. This time, there was no foul language involved. Moreover, the essence of the issue is not scandalous in the conventional sense but strictly within a church context. Still, that is enough to discredit Garegin.

In short, this is the second time this week that Pashinyan has accused the Catholicos of violating his vow of celibacy and of having children, calling on him to publicly confirm or deny the allegation. Pashinyan himself makes no secret of the satisfaction he takes in his clever tactic, believing he has presented Garegin not just with a dilemma, but with a full-blown trident. Here is how he relishes his strategy:

"Garegin's silence means consent and effectively removes him from the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin. Telling the truth also removes him from the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin. Lying — that too removes him from the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin."

If one is to believe Pashinyan regarding the effectiveness of the logical trap he has set, it would follow that the entire Armenian diaspora has long been aware of how many times and under what circumstances Garegin violated his vow of celibacy — and simply turns a blind eye to it, treating it, so to speak, as a momentary lapse. Pashinyan, by continuously bringing this issue to the fore, has in effect declared that the public compromise on this matter has come to an end.

Pashinyan has a serious chance of success. The fact is that the Armenian Church is not a monolithic structure. Within it — especially among younger priests — there is a growing undercurrent of dissatisfaction with the corrupt system built around Garegin. Of course, it would be naïve to expect an immediate split or crisis within the Church. However, at the very least, one can hope to neutralise its toxicity ahead of the parliamentary elections — in short, to ensure it remains silent and stays out of sight, as Garegin is now doing.

Against this backdrop, Pashinyan posted a congratulatory message to Azerbaijan on the occasion of the Eid al-Adha on the social network X. Notably, this message, delivered at the height of the struggle with the Catholicos, is undoubtedly a bold step. Yet there needs to be more such steps if Yerevan truly seeks a sustainable peace.

Ukraine – Russia

During the talks in Istanbul between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, as expected, no breakthrough was achieved. Meanwhile, as Russian forces continued their slow advance into the remaining unoccupied areas of Donetsk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces delivered a powerful asymmetric strike against Russia. As a result of Operation "Spider's Web," drones damaged and destroyed dozens of Russian strategic bombers at five airfields deep inside Russian territory.

The damage is unlikely to affect Russia’s offensive in Ukraine. The goal of the strike was, on the one hand, to inflict reputational damage on Russia and, on the other, to create grounds for internal instability. In this regard, Kyiv is treading on thin ice. For this tactic to be effective, a whole series of similar asymmetric strikes would need to follow — and a sizeable stockpile of means would be required to sustain them. Whether Kyiv possesses such an arsenal remains an open question.

One downside of this episode for Ukraine is the wary reaction from Donald Trump, who is deeply concerned that such incidents could lead to a nuclear war. According to information leaked to the media from confidential sources, it is reported that people in Trump’s circle are now talking about ending all assistance to Kyiv.

Experts have already begun discussing the possibility of Moscow using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine. However, it seems to me that this is an unlikely scenario. For such an action, Moscow would first need to prove and publicly declare that the strike against its Air Force was not carried out solely by Ukraine, but by NATO. Only in this way could the use of nuclear weapons be credibly justified. After all, responding with a "nuke" solely to Ukrainian actions would not be particularly prestigious for a global power. Washington, for its part, immediately distanced itself from the Ukrainian operation — effectively deflecting the threat from its NATO partners.

The goal of persuading Trump to provide more active support to Ukraine was, in part, the purpose of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to the U.S. capital. During a conversation between Merz and Trump in the Oval Office, an awkward moment occurred. Merz likened the desired U.S.-Europe alliance against Russia to the Allied landing in Normandy in 1944 — to which Trump, after a brief pause, replied: “That wasn’t a pleasant day for you, was it?”

This remark demonstrated Trump’s keen instinct rather than any intent to insult his counterpart. It revealed his displeasure at being manipulated. In short, Trump showed that he is too formidable to be caught in such a web.

The United States

When, just a week ago, Donald Trump bid a warm farewell to Elon Musk — handing him a symbolic set of keys to the White House — it was clear that the locks in that house had already been changed. The tension hanging in the air of the Oval Office was palpable.

And this past week, the storm finally broke. Elon Musk voiced his outrage over the new government spending bill, calling it, among other things, “a disgusting abomination.” Trump responded by saying that Musk had "simply lost it" over the cancellation of tax subsidies for electric vehicles, adding that Musk had known about all the provisions of the bill in advance. Musk replied that he had not been aware — repeating his "disgrace" accusation — and went so far as to implicate Trump in the Epstein affair. Both sides are now threatening to tear up contracts, and Trump has rejected the red Tesla car previously ordered for him.

There is little need to recount every twist and turn of this conflict. It very much appears that Trump, having made use of Musk’s money, is now trying to rein in the billionaire’s growing ambitions — including political ones.

One way or another, the power struggle within the U.S. elite is reaching a new level. Musk’s businesses are now so deeply intertwined with state interests that it will be no easy task for Trump to neutralise his influence. It is expected that Musk will soon begin financing Trump’s political opponents. But perhaps the more intriguing question is this: who among the president’s inner circle will choose to back the eccentric billionaire in this unfolding game?