US Army sets foot in Zangazur: what is to come? Contemplations with Orkhan Amashov/VIDEO

The visibly increasing US military support for Armenia, coupled with the succour of the same nature furnished by France and the EU, with growing indications of this espousal being potentially used against Azerbaijan by Yerevan both on the ground and as a general leverage device is severely impacting the prospects for the long-awaited peace deal between Baku and Yerevan, argues Orkhan Amashov in his latest Contemplation.

Azerbaijan has long been wary and openly critical of the exponentially enhancing American military support aimed at strengthening Armenia’s armed forces. For Baku, this signifies a critical element in the clearly stated attempt by Washington to embolden Yerevan vis-à-vis Azerbaijan at a time when these two nations are yet to conclude a peace deal, the objective, inter alia, being to force the latter to sign a document on Armenian terms.

In conjunction with what is widely perceived as reconnaissance activities undertaken by the EU Common Security and Defence policy deployment on the conditional Armenian-Azerbaijani border, there is a strong feeling in Baku that the enhanced Western espousal for Armenia is designed to prop Yerevan up, to the detriment of Baku. Azerbaijan is far from being convinced that these are all purely focused on curbing Yerevan’s reliance on Moscow.

“Do not exacerbate Pashinyan’s situation” is what Washington appears to have been communicating to the Azerbaijani side for some time. The US view is that Baku should not be so forceful, for the time being, in its demands regarding the speedy removal of territorial claims on Azerbaijan embedded in the Armenian constitution.

Pashinyan’s ‘Crossroads of Peace’ initiative, downgrading the overland passage connecting mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakchivan exclave in the pecking order of communication lines, has also been recently hailed by the US and EU, much to the chagrin of Baku.

It is in this context that reports on the latest delivery of military personnel and cargoes to Armenia by the US has only augmented Baku’s concerns. According to Flightradar, a global real-time flight tracker service, on 2-3 August two Boeing C-17 military planes took off from US bases in Romania and the Middle East respectively and landed at Yerevan’s Zvartnots airport. As Caliber has learned from reliable sources, these two planes brought with them between 30-50 US military servicemen, mostly of Armenian descent, some of Slavic appearance, and presumably originating from post-Soviet nations, together with a significant quantity of weapons and ammunitions. It is believed they are now stationed in Zangazur, in Southern Armenia, near the latter’s border with Iran, in close proximity to the Azerbaijani border. The territory of dislocation is almost commensurate with a proposed overland passage connecting Azerbaijan’s mainland with Nakchivan, known as the Zangazur Corridor.

In this regard, in response to enquiries from the Armenian website news.am, the US Embassy stated: “Eagle Partner 2024, a peacekeeping exercise designed to increase interoperability between the United States and Armenia, successfully concluded on 24 July. We can confirm that all U.S. military equipment and personnel have departed Armenia.”

With all due respect to the US embassy in Armenia, the Caliber piece entitled “US army enters Zangazur, delivering weapons, personnel” was primarily about the latest delivery that took place on 2-3 August, not the “Eagle Partner 2024” exercise, of which I will speak later. So, this does not amount to an answer, but to dodging at best.

Before moving on to interim conclusions, let as appreciate some of the developments that had preceded this dispatch. On 5 April, the EU and US committed themselves to strengthening Armenia’s resilience, in a larger sense of this word, with a thinly veiled military-security component. At the time, Caliber was given to understand by informed sources that, as part of the first phase of US assistance, the Armenian Armed Forces would receive new-generation weapons, including sniper rifles, night vision devices, special communications equipment, body armour for special forces, strike mini-drones, compact mines and other munitions.

Subsequent to the joint US-Armenian military drills labelled as “The Eagle Partner” war games, held between 15-24 July, during the course of which it is believed that Armenian special forces were trained on the use of these munitions, on 25 July, the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry reported that Yerevan had “committed provocations using heavy weapons in the Kalbajar and quadcopters in the Tovuz directions”.

As to the very latest delivery of weapons and ammunitions in two US military transport planes, they, as Caliber has been told by informed sources, are specifically tailored for local terrain and military conditions, particularly selected on the basis of the intelligence data gathered by the EU mission stationed in Armenia.

The shipment also included specialised equipment designed to track the trajectories of missiles and other airborne objects, giving rise to the assumption that this could be utilised against any risk emanating from the Iranian territory, in light of its growing tensions with Israel.

As to the circumstances involving the 30-50 US military servicemen, they are believed to have already joined the Armenian base in Zangazur (Syunik), being entrusted with the task of operating this special equipment, in addition to other tasks.

What sort of conclusions should one draw from all of this? There will be those who may argue the whole story is grounded on mere conjecture and that the particulars of the Caliber report should yet be confirmed. Plus, critics may say that any military support Armenia obtains from the US and the EU is aimed at increasing Yerevan's resilience, necessary for decreasing its Russian dependence and there is no cause for alarm for Azerbaijan.

For one thing, in the absence of a peace deal between Baku and Yerevan, any military aid, including the delivery of lethal weaponry to Armenia, is nothing but an attempt to embolden it vis-a-vis Azerbaijan. Despite the widely circulated narrative suggesting that Azerbaijan, after restoring its sovereignty over Karabakh, is intent on assuming military control over Zangazur - Southern Armenia - nothing has eventuated from this claim. Rather intriguingly, none of the border flare-ups that occurred this year were down to Azerbaijani mischief, but due to actions of the Armenian side, a fact which is not even contested.

Baku cannot help but discern that the cumulative impact of the efforts undertaken by the EU, US and France emboldens Pashinyan and his cohorts to the extent of making him feel stubborn enough to vacillate regarding the constitutional obstacle, that is the presence of territorial claims to Azerbaijan in his country’s constitution.

On the whole, the visibly enhanced US military support for Armenia, in conjunction with that of France and the EU, is seriously jeopardising the prospects of a long-overdue peace deal between Baku and Yerevan. Pashinyan remains consistently inconsistent and this adds fire to his metal.