US vows harsh retaliation to Iranian-backed proxies in the Middle East Miscalculation or misunderstanding?

On January 28, three U.S. military personnel were killed and at least 34 wounded when a one-way attack drone struck part of a base in northeast Jordan near the Syrian border.

The lethal incident marks the first time U.S. troops have been killed in near-daily rocket and drone barrages on bases they use in Iraq and Syria, sharply increasing the likelihood that the U.S. will be drawn into a lethal cycle of retaliation with Iran-backed militias in the region. As a result, President Joe Biden said that the U.S. “shall respond” after a brutal attack.

Unsurprisingly, the Biden administration blamed Iran-backed militias for the first U.S. fatalities by such groups against American forces across the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas war. With an increasing risk of military escalation in the region, U.S. officials were working to conclusively identify the precise group responsible for the attack, but they have assessed that one of several Iranian-backed groups was behind it.

Since his election as president, Joe Biden hoped a nettlesome Iran might be one problem he could escape during his presidential term. Iran showed signs of settling down, and there were plenty of more pressing issues: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s growing bellicosity, plus global energy shortfalls pushing U.S. gasoline prices up and denting Biden’s popularity.

The devastating October 7 Hamas attack on Israel demonstrated that Iran remains a virulent and murderous presence in the Middle East with its extensive network of violent proxy forces.

President Joe Biden entered office promising to return the U.S. to the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA. In 2021, he tried to restart the Obama-era nuclear deal. However, Tehran’s hostile position and refusal to make concessions ignited the situation and the negotiation process with Washington.

But the genie was out of the bottle and didn't work. After Russia invaded Ukraine early in 2022, the Biden team undertook some sly diplomacy with Iran. As a result, the Biden administration suspended all negotiations with Tehran and exerted more pressure on it, albeit unsuccessfully.

The growing pressure on Iran seemingly was one of the core reasons behind Hamas militant's attack on Israel and renewed attacks of Houthi rebels in Yemen on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

Attacks by groups of Hamas militants crossing Israel’s border followed, claiming the lives of more than 1,300 civilians and taking, by early counts, about 150 people as hostages. That has left Israel with little choice. The Israel Defense Forces prepared a significant response to demonstrate its capacity to defend the population and mitigate against future Hamas attacks.

Seemingly, the Biden administration's stance on the Middle East risks triggering a larger conflict with the involvement of all proxy groups and militant organizations. After the deadly attack, the U.S. vowed a response against Iranian-backed militias.

The military base that came under drone attack – Tower 22 has long been used as a support site for the U.S. base at Al-Tanf, which has occupied a key crossing on the Baghdad-Damascus highway since the early days of the U.S. special operations war against the Islamic State group. The small installation, which Jordan does not publicly disclose, includes U.S. engineering, aviation, logistics, and security troops.

This satellite photo from Planet Labs PBC shows a military base known as Tower 22 in northeastern Jordan. (File/AP)

Consequently, the U.S. and allied forces in Iraq and Syria have been targeted in more than 150 attacks since mid-October, according to the Pentagon, and Washington has carried out retaliatory strikes in both countries. Many of the attacks on U.S. personnel have been claimed by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a loose alliance of Iran-linked armed groups that oppose U.S. support for Israel in the Gaza conflict.

However, in the case of the recent attack, it is still unclear how the drone got through the U.S. radars and carried out a deadly attack, as, during previous attempts of infiltration, all drones were downed and neutralized before they perpetrated any attacks against the U.S. personnel. Also, the U.S. will need to clarify where the drone was fired from, while the Jordanian authorities deny chances that the drone was fired from within the country's borders.

Notwithstanding the consequences and the potential U.S. counter-measures, the situation in the Middle East region will remain tense and fragmented as a result of the Israel-Hamas war.