“Armenia will turn into an EU colony” Expert insights on Caliber.Az

A former deputy foreign minister has stated that Armenia is not expected in the European Union. "My former colleagues, as well as acquaintances who still work in European structures, claim that Armenia is not awaited in the EU, although they welcome Yerevan's aspiration for membership," said former Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Avet Adonts.

In his assessment, Armenia is not yet prepared to even consider EU membership from both an economic and democratic development standpoint. He suggested that the EU might leverage Yerevan's aspirations to further its own objectives, particularly within the context of its anti-Russian and anti-Iranian agenda. Adonts added that Armenia has become a battleground for these competing interests, a shift from years when official Yerevan maintained a more neutral stance.

"The current statements about the intention to hold a referendum on Armenia's accession to the EU during a period when global political tension is at its peak, and the planet is divided into camps, means turning one's back on Russia and Iran, and facing the West. Our main challenges are related to security, and the EU does not possess any tools in this regard," emphasized the former Deputy Foreign Minister of Armenia.

Armenian media have reported that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan questioned the feasibility of a referendum on July 1, supporting claims that the initiative is primarily a PR manoeuvre designed to enhance the popularity of pro-Western parties allied with the ruling government.

How valid are the former Deputy Foreign Minister's conclusions? Is Armenia being manipulated for broader objectives?

Foreign experts provided insights on these issues to Caliber.Az.

According to Mehmet Perinçek, a Turkish political scientist, Doctor of Historical Sciences, and visiting researcher at the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Moscow State University, Armenia's accession to the EU is a fantasy, a completely unrealistic project.

"Firstly, Armenia is not prepared for such a step either economically or politically. The EU will never accept a country like this into its ranks. However, Europeans are capable of regularly raising this issue to use Armenia for their own selfish purposes. The West has lost its tools for interfering in the affairs of the South Caucasus and needs new levers to create chaos there and reintervene in regional matters. For this purpose, the West is willing to repeatedly exploit Armenia. This country will never become an equal partner of the EU. In the Euro-Atlantic space, Armenia can only play one role – that of cannon fodder. This country can only be a pawn in the implementation of the West's aggressive plans," the historian asserts.

He adds that pro-Western forces in Armenia are raising the issue of potential EU membership to deceive the Armenian people.

"They offer hope, and through it, they begin to create a new regime within the country. Through this fantasy, they aim to detach Armenia from regional integration, especially from Russia. They tell the Armenian people – your future is not with Azerbaijan, Türkiye, or Russia, your place is in the West. By doing this, they provoke the Armenian people and sow sentiments against their neighbours.

A new era has begun in the South Caucasus. It concerns both the peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the normalization of relations between Türkiye and Armenia. Through such paths, especially via the '3 + 3' platform, regional countries can ensure stability in this space and economic integration. This does not align with Western plans. That is why the fantasy of Armenia's potential EU membership has been launched. They will exploit this hope while simultaneously undermining the sovereignty of the country. They want to turn Armenia into a tool for achieving their objectives.

We saw this in Türkiye. The promise of Türkiye’s EU membership was also a fantasy, and it remains so. They are trying to ensure that Türkiye remains at the EU's doorstep and does not cooperate with Eurasian countries. But they will never accept Türkiye into the EU. For all these years, they have only harmed Türkiye's national sovereignty by imposing new and ever more conditions for membership. Now they will begin to impose similar conditions on Armenia. It will become no more than a colony of the EU," says Perinçek.

Stanislav Pritchin, a Candidate of Historical Sciences and Senior Researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at IMEMO RAS (Moscow), generally agrees with the former Deputy Foreign Minister of Armenia Adonts, as from the perspective of political realism and pragmatism, there is no chance that Armenia could become a member of the European Union even in the long term.

"Therefore, all movements around this initiative – holding a referendum, initiating dialogue – are essentially populist in nature. I am convinced that, despite Pashinyan’s entire political career, there will never be a moment when Armenia will actually come closer to the EU or even become a candidate for membership," says the scholar.

But there is another question, he noted.

"By adopting this approach toward Europe, Armenia is placing itself in a rather vulnerable position. This means that the EU can exert pressure and influence. We see this, for example, in the case of Georgia. Tbilisi fails to meet Brussels' demands, and then the EU withdraws financial aid, candidate status, freezes everything, and promises to restore it only when Georgia agrees to meet all EU requirements.

The same will likely happen with Armenia, as it will take on obligations without any bonuses or benefits. These obligations imply unconditional compliance with all directives coming from the West. Consequently, the Armenian leadership will be forced to make decisions not based on national interests, but according to what Western countries see as necessary. This is the likely scenario," concludes Prichchin.