Armenian-American partnership: Tehran’s quiet reaction to growing US influence Expert opinions

On January 14, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken signed a strategic partnership charter in Washington, D.C., a ceremony broadcast live on Armenian Public Television.

“We’re also working with Armenia in the realm of security and defence, particularly to support its efforts to assert its independence and sovereignty over its own territory,” Blinken stated, announcing that a special border security team would visit Armenia next week for joint efforts.

Armenia has long positioned itself as a close partner of Iran. However, the U.S. remains the principal adversary of the current Iranian regime. This newly inked charter undoubtedly strikes a blow to Tehran’s interests, raising questions about how Iran will respond.

Foreign experts shared their insights on the matter with Caliber.Az, offering perspectives on the potential implications of this development.

Lana Ravandi-Fadai, Associate Professor at the Department of Contemporary East and Africa at the Russian State University for the Humanities and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that the signing of this agreement significantly strengthens U.S. influence on Armenia's domestic political processes.

"This development raises concerns in Tehran. However, Iranian authorities are hesitant to directly blame Armenia's current leadership, as even a pro-Western Armenia is seen in Iran as a counterbalance to the 'Turkic factor.' Maintaining good relations with Armenia is vital for Iran to offset Azerbaijan’s growing influence in the region," said the Iranologist.

She further explained that the agreement has received limited coverage in Iran's official press. When it is mentioned, the criticism is primarily directed at the United States rather than Armenia. For instance, the Iranian publication Mashregh reported that the agreement underscores U.S. intentions to actively interfere in Armenia’s internal affairs, particularly in the realms of security and defence. This, the report argues, could heighten regional tensions, destabilize the area, undermine Armenia’s sovereignty, and turn it into a battleground for U.S.-Russia rivalry.

The Iranologist also noted that during a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Ali Akbar Ahmadian, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, warned that the presence of extra-regional forces would not contribute to stability or security in the region.

According to her, a significant deterioration in relations between Tehran and Yerevan is unlikely, as Iran values its ties with Armenia for several reasons. Armenia serves as a vital conduit for Iran’s economic interactions with Europe and as a foothold for Iranian influence in the South Caucasus.

"Tehran respects Armenia's right to sign agreements with various countries, including Western powers. However, if such agreements are accompanied by overtly unfriendly actions—such as the establishment of a U.S. military base in Armenia—relations could indeed worsen," Ravandi-Fadai speculated.

Iranian political analyst and expert on Russia-Iran relations, Amir Mohammadi Chahaki, believes that Iran finds itself in a challenging position, facing a historical impasse that demands strategic decisions. This follows its irreversible withdrawal from Syria, the fall of Bashar al-Assad, and the loss of influence in Lebanon due to the dismantling of Hezbollah's military infrastructure.

"The arrival of Donald Trump in the White House and the necessity of reducing tensions with the West posed additional challenges during this critical period," Chahaki noted.

He added that the strategic agreement between Armenia and the U.S., despite Ayatollah Khamenei's warnings to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan about the risks of cooperating with the U.S., is viewed as Armenia's sovereign right. In this context, Iran, under the leadership of President Dr Pezeshkian, is seeking to ease tensions with all its neighbours. "Most likely, Iran will adopt a cautious stance and show no inclination to weaken its relations with Armenia," Chahaki stated.

In conclusion, he highlighted that even the Kremlin has reacted to the Armenia-U.S. strategic agreement with restraint and caution.