Azerbaijan will strike back at any provocative action by Armenia Experts discuss Pashinyan's rash moves

Armenia and Russia have a strained relationship due to Armenia's inclination towards the West, which Russia is trying to prevent. To justify their actions, the Armenian side has adopted an offensive strategy. Recently, Prime Minister Pashinyan accused Russia of not fulfilling its obligations to Armenia. He stated that their Russian partners were unable to point out any unfulfilled obligations on their part, but Armenia had legitimate questions that required full answers. 

Caliber.Az sought the opinions of prominent Russian political analysts regarding the future of Russia-Armenia relations and the potential response of Russia in case Armenia decides to betray its former ally for the promises made by the West.

Aslan Rubayev, an expert on CIS countries and director of the Centre for Monitoring Eurasian Problems, says it is important to immediately distinguish the truth from false claims.

Rubayev explains that Karabakh is the territory of Azerbaijan, which was under Armenia's occupation for thirty years. Azerbaijan has simply regained its historical territory, and Russia never controlled Karabakh.

Moreover, Russia could not defend territory that was not part of the Russian Federation, and it was seized in violation of international law. Therefore, Pashinyan's rhetoric on this matter is completely incomprehensible. It is quite obvious that Yerevan makes all decisions under the dictation of Western structures. Pashinyan coordinates almost every step he takes with the West.

Rubayev believes the problem lies in Armenia's inability to know what it wants. However, Yerevan was going to ignite a big fire in the region involving extra-regional players such as France and the United States.

Rubayev added that a global international conflict was avoided due to the wisdom of Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey in preventing it. He stated that Baku, Ankara and Moscow are working together to resist destructive designs. Rubayev added that Pashinyan wants to reignite the conflict but will not succeed. If Armenia attempts any provocative actions, Azerbaijan will respond decisively, and Russia will not assist Yerevan. This will leave Armenia to face Azerbaijan alone, which will result in a defeat due to the strength of the Azerbaijani military. Rubayev believes that Pashinyan is underestimating the risks and Russia will not help Armenia any further.

Renat Savin, a Russian political scientist, believes that Moscow's patience with Armenia has run out. He notes that the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson has stopped using ironic intonations when commenting on each new fabrication by Yerevan and has started refuting the flow of Armenian lies in detail, making counter-accusations against Yerevan.

Pundit believes that the sharp notes of the Russian Foreign Ministry indicate that Moscow is no longer in the mood to seek compromise with Yerevan and is ready for very decisive action. If Armenia does not calm down and betrays Russia's interests on April 5 in Brussels, very sad consequences await it, including the loss of the guarantor of its sovereignty, when tomorrow it will be too late to win back.

Savin believes that Pashinyan has not yet found himself in a situation where he was abandoned to his fate decisively and irrevocably. Experts in the West assure him that Moscow will not go for a complete break in relations and will respond positively to Pashinyan's appeals if Yerevan asks nicely. But this is not true. Savin is sure that Russia has already prepared a list of extraordinary measures of pressure on Yerevan and is just waiting for the moment to put them into action.

Pashinyan, on the other hand, is in a situation of psychological reformatting when friends from the West assure him that there are no threats. The more frightening it will be to return back to reality and answer for everything done and said in front of Azerbaijan and Russia. Savin concludes that Armenia needs to be careful, otherwise, it could face dire consequences.