Brussels elite plunging Europe into crisis EU and collapse of idea about ​​consensus

As is known, the Council of Europe has approved candidates for the key positions in the EU, but they will take office only after approval by the European Parliament.

Ursula von der Leyen was nominated again to her position as the president of the European Commission. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas will serve as the high representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and security policy instead of Josep Borrell, while former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa will serve as the president of the European Council instead of Charles Michel.

In general, this composition did not cause much surprise as the candidates were nominated in proportion to the election results from the European People's Party (EPP), socialists and liberals (“Renew Europe”). Another thing is that right-wing parties, which achieved significant success, remained outside the first places in official organisations. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that although during the elections to the European Parliament, the supporters of sovereignty or right-wing parties that promised changes won in 20 of 27 EU member states, the European People's Party entered into a coalition with the left and liberals, the purpose of which is to maintain power among the Brussels elite, which is plunging Europe into crisis.

At the same time, the Italian prime minister, leader of the “Brothers of Italy” party and one of the main representatives of the European Conservatives and Reformists Group Giorgia Meloni, showing dissatisfaction with throwing it aside from making important decisions, announced that there is no logic of consensus because those who considered themselves the main players in the EU ignored those on the opposite political side and representing nations considered too small to be worthy of sitting at the negotiating tables.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk tried to slightly soften the reproach, saying that there is no Europe without Italy and there are no solutions without Meloni. Antonio Costa, whose candidacy Meloni did not support, expressed readiness to work closely not only with her, but also with other 26 leaders of the EU member states. Von der Leyen announced the plans to “appeal to MEPs from other factions” to gain support for “the widest majority in favour of strong Europe. Following this statement, the information went viral that an Italian representative may hold the post of vice-president of the European Commission.

Even in this case, the European Parliament is unlikely to live without problems. The observers say that the main issue for those whom parliamentarians are likely to let hold the desired positions will be the aspect of assistance to Ukraine. That is, it turns out that much time at the European Parliament’s meetings will be devoted to this issue, in which the positions of the ruling coalition and the opposition are absolutely opposite. Kallas has already said that the EU must continue the process of Ukraine’s accession to NATO while Orban expressed dissatisfaction with the EU’s attempts to “draw the countries into hostilities in Ukraine.

Proceeding from this nuance, many political analysts think that it is pointless to expect anything creative from the European Parliament. There is such a subtle point that there is no creativity in the election programmes of the centrists (centre-right parties) for a long time. Their rhetoric has been based on “anti”. Thus, they called on people to vote for them to stand against the policy of right-wing parties, presented as “ultra” or “radicals” rather than for the sake of certain progressive ideas.

That’s why experts wonder whether this vector will be further developed at the European Parliament’s meetings, where the ruling coalition will only blame the right parties for certain actions without providing its own creative programme. Even if representatives of the opposition hold certain posts, one can hardly hope for any unity. Moreover, polarisation in Europe today is stronger than ever not only between some EU member states, but also within most of the countries.

Among the latest examples is the refusal of Bulgarian President Rumen Radev to lead the country’s delegation to the upcoming NATO summit in the US in July 2024 because the president’s opinion was ignored when the official position of Sofia was expressed by the delegation. Moreover, this issue caused intensive debates between Bulgarian parties on the principle of reflecting a pro-Western or pro-Russian position.

In general, Radev has repeatedly expressed the view that the provision of Kyiv with military assistance by the West makes the war in Europe protracted and called supporters of this line “warmongers”. Therefore, Radev’s demarche may be directly related to his reluctance to participate in the NATO summit, the main leitmotif of which will be a policy to help Kyiv.

At the same time, people are confident that democracy has been destroyed in today's Europe. This is confirmed by the EU statement dated June 27, according to which the process of Georgia’s joining is “de facto suspended” due to the law “On Transparency of Foreign Influence” adopted by the country’s parliament. Some experts wonder about democracy proceeding from the approval of the document by legally elected MPs. It is noteworthy to remind about the threats against Hungary because the EU was ready to violate its own rules on consensus due to Hungary’s independent position.

So we continue monitoring the situation on the European platform, where the first session of the newly elected MEPs is expected to be held from July 16 to 19. At the same time, we will check Costa’s promise to work and help create consensus by qualified majority and, where possible, by consensus, without the right of veto.

P.S. While the article was being written, it became known that Orban had initiated a “Patriotic Alliance” of right-wing forces within the European Parliament, including the “Freedom Party of Austria” and the Czech movement ANO 2011. Orban noted that the goal of the Alliance which is on a par with “Identity and Democracy” party (ID) and  the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) is to form a new political force - the biggest right-wing branch in the European Parliament, opposing war, migration, inflation and the Green Deal.

Azerbaijani political analyst Teymur Atayev’s article specially for Caliber.Az

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