China’s diplomatic surge: Outmaneuvering West in Central Asia, South Caucasus, and Middle East Beijing poised for long-term influence

This week, a delegation from the Chinese People's Liberation Army Academy of Military Sciences (PLA) visited Baku, where they met with Azerbaijani military officials at the National Defence University of Azerbaijan. During their visit, the delegation was briefed on the university’s history and activities, and the head of the delegation signed the University’s Book of Honor. The PLA representatives also toured the Foreign Languages Center at the Institute of Military Administration, discussing modern technology applications in education and the teaching of Chinese to Azerbaijani soldiers. Military education was a key focus, with both sides commending the participation of Azerbaijani military personnel in courses held in China.

This visit is seen by some experts as part of China’s broader strategy to enhance its influence in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and the Middle East under the “Belt and Road” initiative, aimed at establishing a strategic corridor across Asia. The initiative’s first significant link is Pakistan, with whom China has maintained a strategic alliance for decades. In March 2021, China and Iran signed a comprehensive cooperation agreement, integrating Tehran into the "Belt and Road" framework. In September 2022, China became the first major power to appoint an ambassador to Afghanistan following the US withdrawal and the Taliban’s rise to power.

However, the most notable development has been China’s diplomatic breakthrough with Saudi Arabia. In 2023, Riyadh joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a move facilitated by Chinese diplomacy. Additionally, Beijing mediated negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, resulting in a significant rapprochement between the two major Persian Gulf rivals.

Iraq, a key player in the energy sector, is turning to China to modernize its social infrastructure. With Chinese assistance, Baghdad plans to construct 7,000 schools and 90,000 residential buildings in the Sadr City district of the capital. Meanwhile, Sino-Turkish relations are also advancing. Following the recent NATO summit in Washington, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expressed interest in joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Trade between Beijing and Ankara is expanding, and Chinese language centres are being established in Turkish cities. Through these initiatives, China is strengthening ties with two of the United States' most significant allies: Türkiye, which boasts NATO’s second-largest army, and Saudi Arabia, known for its vast financial and energy resources.

This week, Beijing made a significant move in an area previously dominated by Western nations. In the Chinese capital, delegations from various Palestinian factions signed the "Beijing Declaration on National Unity," which aims to enhance cooperation among Palestinian groups in governing the West Bank and Gaza. This agreement has been likened to the recent treaty between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which was also brokered by China.

Azerbaijan's pivotal role, given its close political, military, and cultural connections with Ankara, stands out. At the July SCO summit, China and Azerbaijan signed a declaration to enhance strategic cooperation, with Azerbaijan serving as a key transit hub for east-west trade.

From January to October 2023, trade between China and Azerbaijan surged to $2.57 billion, a 47.5% increase from the previous year. Experts predict that Chinese direct investment in Azerbaijan could exceed $1 billion by 2025. Through Baku, China also gains access to the Caucasus and Mediterranean energy resources.

China's diplomatic gains are closely tied to the diminishing influence of other major players in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and the Middle East. Russia is focused on the conflict in eastern Ukraine, the European Union is struggling with economic issues, and the U.S. is preoccupied with Eastern Europe and internal conflicts. Additionally, Washington's Middle East policy has become less flexible.

In this context, Beijing has capitalized on these shifts and is poised to maintain its influence in these critical regions in the years to come.