Military clashes in Karabakh could happen at any time, Russian expert warns Caliber.Az interview with Alexander Khramchikhin

Caliber.Az presents an interview with the Russian military expert Alexander Khramchikhin.

- As you know the European Union will soon send a mission to Armenia. What is the main purpose of this mission?

- The purpose of this mission is to portray the EU's involvement in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement and to pretend that it is able to replace Russia there in some capacity. Although it is clear that the mission cannot replace Russia in any capacity. But this is no longer important. The main thing is to create such an appearance now.

- Can the presence of a European mission in Armenia provoke any military clashes in Karabakh?

- Military clashes in Karabakh can happen at any time, quite independently of the presence of any mission there.

- The five-year term of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh expires in 2025. Do you think Moscow will withdraw its military contingent from there or will it still try to extend the contract?

- It depends on the position of Armenia and Azerbaijan and whether they want to interrupt that mission. But Russia would, of course, like to keep the peacekeeping contingent in the region.

- For what purpose?

- In order to remain there.

- That is, by the time this term expires, Moscow will have put this issue on the agenda of the talks with Baku and Yerevan?

- I think so, irrespective of the location of the EU mission in Armenia.

- What do you think the chances are today of a peace treaty being signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia?

- About the same as before.

- Can you be more specific...

- I believe that Pashinian's objective is to surrender Karabakh completely. But to what extent this is within his capabilities, it is difficult to say. Here much depends on the internal situation.

- Do you mean that Pashinyan is ordered from the outside to surrender Karabakh fully and completely to Azerbaijan?

- Yes. This is the desire of the West.

- And why is it in the interests of the West?

- Because the main goal of the West is the complete removal of Armenia from Russia's sphere of influence, which, apparently, as they believe, is impossible without surrendering Karabakh. And after that Armenia becomes a worthy member of the world community, which means that it will walk with an outstretched hand in the same way as Moldova, Ukraine or other post-Soviet countries.

- According to your logic, if the West is interested "in the complete surrender of Karabakh" to Azerbaijan, this is hardly an option for Russia. Isn't it?

- Russia would probably not accept such an arrangement, although, on the other hand, Karabakh is still not recognised even by Armenia itself. Therefore, for Russia it is not Karabakh's ownership that matters, but Armenia's positioning. But this is a very complex issue.

- Then why did Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov publicly acknowledge that Azerbaijan had returned its ancestral territories relatively recently?

- Formally, this is simply a statement of fact. Because if, once again, Armenia itself has not recognised Karabakh and its surrounding regions as Armenian, then what else is there to talk about?

- Will Moscow insist on deploying a CSTO mission to Armenia?

- I do not know to what extent Russia will directly insist on this issue. If Armenia categorically refuses, then it refuses. Moscow has no special levers to convince it of anything. Actually, this confirms what I said about Pashinyan's mission.

- Pashinyan's mission includes the withdrawal of the Russian base from Gyumri?

- Undoubtedly. It is logical to expect the withdrawal of the Russian military base from Gyumri, although after that Armenia will lose any possibility to secure itself in any way.

- Is it excluded that there can be the deployment of the American military there?

- I don`t think so. The West has no need for that. The West will not meddle in the region where a real war may take place. So, there will be no western bases in Armenia. I will give you a clear example. Why is there no US military base in Georgia, even though the country is more than ready to receive them? It is because the West does not aspire to have them in Georgia.

- Because it does not want to or cannot?

- Look, if Armenia falls out of Russia's sphere of influence, that will be enough for the West. Armenia is advancing western interests in any case, there is no need for creation of military bases there. On the other hand, the West not only lacks desire, but also lacks sufficient resources.

- And finally, I would like to hear your forecast regarding the war in Ukraine. How long can it last and how will it end?

- The war in Ukraine could go on for as long as you like, for several more years. Last spring it was obvious that there was a battle of attrition, so it could end in anything. Which side, and in what form, will be the first to be exhausted, I don't know.

- You are not sure that Russia will win?

- In principle a win for Russia is more likely than a success for the other side. But I would not predict one hundred per cent that either side will win.