Second Karabakh War buried the era of post-Soviet reality New times are coming

Modern sociologist Georgi Derluguian wrote that the "Karabakh movement" (in fact, separatist movement - Ed.), which advocated the unification of the then Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast of Azerbaijan with Armenia and caused a war between Baku and Yerevan, was the first trigger of the earthquake that destroyed the Soviet Union. It was the "Karabakh movement", according to Derluguian, that was the beginning of the collapse and death of the USSR.

At the very moment when Mikhail Gorbachev was negotiating with the West on détente and planning economic modernization reforms modeled on China, including new joint ventures with Western multinationals, the "Karabakh movement" appeared unexpectedly in late 1987. It demanded the secession of what was then NKAO from Azerbaijan and its annexation to Armenia ("miatsum"). The ensuing mass protests in Armenia and Azerbaijan, inter-ethnic clashes, and armed conflicts began to undermine the USSR regime. In addition, they became a trigger, causing similar processes throughout the country.

Gorbachev found himself in a difficult position. He could not tolerate the signs of imperial disintegration, and from time to time used the army to suppress isolated national uprisings, as in Tbilisi in 1989 and Baku in 1990. But he could not use the army to its full force, because then he would have to pour blood on the country, which would complicate relations with the West and deprive him of hopes for investment, new technology, and economic modernization. In the end, the USSR regime, entangled in contradictions, collapsed.

Derluguian is probably right in the case of separatism in Karabakh. But here we need to make a correction: the first peals of thunder were the events in Almaty in December 1986, also known as Zheltoksan (December Uprising).

But here is another important point: the First Karabakh War in 1991-1994 was one of the first manifestations of the new post-Soviet reality. An important feature was the emergence of unrecognized republics, such as "Artsakh". They separated from their states and received some form of support from Russia. Separatist Karabakh, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, then the "LPR" and "DPR" are the results of the same process, although it could proceed in different ways.

Why was it important for Russia, which perceived itself as the heir to the USSR, to support separatism in the former Soviet Union? Because it was important to make the lives of the countries that separated from the Soviet Union depend on Moscow. Maintaining a fragile balance there on the brink of an armed conflict was entirely under Russian control. It was possible to do this by supporting the separatists in various ways and by setting conditions for neighboring countries that they could not refuse, thus drawing them into the orbit of its interests.

Such a policy was not always successful and effective. Nevertheless, it was one of the mechanisms for keeping the countries of the former Soviet Union in the orbit of Moscow's influence. And it worked because it was impossible to solve a number of regional problems and, eventually, even a simple cease-fire without agreements with Russia.

The beginning of this policy was not under Putin but under the liberal Yeltsin. By the way, it is curious that then the liberal-democratic public, or, more precisely, a significant part of it, supported the Karabakh separatists. The reason (exactly in the case of a part of liberal democrats) was not political; I am ashamed to say, but xenophobia played a role here.

The situation is changing only now, both in Ukraine and in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan. However, the process of change was launched earlier. The 44-day war of 2020, which Azerbaijan won, changed the balance of power in the South Caucasus in favor of the Azerbaijani-Turkish alliance. Now it is gradually beginning to dictate the terms in the region. The Organization of Turkic States (OTG), established under the auspices of Ankara, is also aimed at expanding Turkish influence in Central Asia. However, Azerbaijan and Türkiye are not confrontational with Russia and even maintain a close partnership, especially in the economy.

In other words, the latest processes mean the end of the old era - the post-Soviet reality in the former Soviet Union and the beginning of a completely new world. What it will be is not yet clear.