West pushing Ukraine toward concessions and capitulation Expert insights on Caliber.Az

The West’s “washing its hands of the matter” policy can be described as profoundly cynical—a calculated attempt to distance itself from the Ukrainian issue quickly. According to Kurt Volker, the former U.S. State Department Special Representative for Ukraine, the best compromise in the current conflict would be “an acknowledgement by Ukraine that they’re not going to take this [the territories seized by Russia] back by military means." 

Volker cited the example of East Germany to illustrate how such a division of Ukraine might unfold. "While it was always in the German constitution that there would be a unification of all German lands, it was accepted that it was not going to be done militarily. And indeed, East Germany existed as an independent state. [That is] more than anyone is suggesting for Eastern Ukraine, but East Germany existed as an independent state for 40 years before Germany was unified again," he explained.

However, this proposal should come as no surprise—after all, hasn’t the West repeatedly abandoned those who placed their trust in its promises of aid and support?

But how do Ukrainians themselves perceive such a cynical proposal to partition their country, particularly when it comes from their Western “friends”? A correspondent from Caliber.Az asked Ukrainian experts and political analysts for their views.

According to Maxim Yali, an expert at the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security, there is nothing particularly new for Ukraine in Volker's statement. The West has already made it clear on multiple occasions that it would not hesitate to sacrifice Ukraine’s sovereignty if it would help resolve the issue.

"We now perceive such statements with complete calm, as part of our normal routine. In principle, this all fits within the Kellogg Plan, which was published last spring and remains the basic scenario for the resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Naturally, there will be many more such statements now. Just recently, similar statements were made by Donald Trump. In his podcast, Zelenskyy also told Lex Fridman that, with security guarantees—currently the main sticking point in ending the war—Ukraine might consider such an option.

Because we’ve already seen this precedent after the signing of the Minsk agreements, when it was also suggested that Crimea could only be returned through diplomacy, and Donbas—only through the same method. But who then honoured these commitments? So, the crux of the matter is that it is, of course, much easier for the United States to exert pressure on Ukraine than on Russia. This is exactly what we are witnessing now," Yali noted.

Political analyst and journalist Dmitry Voronkov believes that the West's attitude towards Ukraine's territorial integrity should be seen as an attempt to push Kyiv towards concessions and capitulation.

"However, it should also be acknowledged that similar rhetoric has already been voiced by Ukrainian authorities, where security guarantees were discussed in the form of transferring all non-occupied territories under NATO's aegis, while the return of occupied territories would happen through diplomatic means. Judging by several insider reports and official statements, such an initiative does exist. But if the West intends to offer Ukraine the simple option of surrendering the occupied territories to Russia, I am not sure that Ukraine and the Ukrainian people will agree to this, especially if security guarantees are not provided, meaning the risk of further Russian advancement cannot be ruled out. Even if we theoretically consider the model of achieving peace through significant concessions from Ukraine, I believe that, in this case, there should be a not vague, but clearly outlined plan for the return of territories through diplomatic means, with the consolidation of all Ukrainian allies. Moreover, these conditions should not be weakened or frozen, and clear security guarantees from the West should be in place for these points," Voronkov concluded.