Armenia exists thanks to Collective Security Treaty Organisation Russian experts’ opinions at Caliber.Az

Armenia continues making anti-Russian statements.

Thus, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has said during the governmental session that Armenia would leave the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), but the timing has not been determined yet.

“What do you think? What is the next step? Do you think we'll go back? Not at all, there is no other way. Don’t worry, we won’t go back,” Pashinyan said.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said that Armenia did not pay its membership fee to the CSTO.

In response to the Russian Foreign Ministry’s reaction, President of the Armenian National Assembly Alen Simonyan condemned Moscow, completely forgetting about the diplomatic and political etiquette.

“Naive Armenian officials believed and hoped that Russia would not leave it alone and would not abandon it and the Armenian people,” Simonyan noted.

What does Moscow think about Yerevan’s actions? What kind of reaction should be expected? The Russian political analysts expressed their opinions for Caliber.Az.

Director of the New Society Institute Vasily Koltashov said that Simonyan’s statement seems very strange because the Armenian leadership itself recognised Karabakh as the Azerbaijani territory. Therefore, it is completely unclear which obligations were not fulfilled by Russia.

“On the other hand, Simonyan’s rudeness is quite logical. The US would like Armenia to be against Russia. The US would like the Armenian people not to feel the gratitude that they should feel towards Russia for saving them from death. The US would like the Armenian people to join the war against Russia. Russia knows that Pashinyan and his entourage, his party, are the enemy of Russia. Of course, the Armenian people must make a decision on their position,” he said.

"When Simonyan says that Russia was too weak to fight for Armenia against Azerbaijan in 2020, one can ask another question. What did Pashinyan think about? Why did not he coordinate his statements with Moscow? Why didn’t he coordinate the beginning of the war in 2020 with the CSTO? After all, everybody knows that Armenia started the hostilities. Moscow can remind everything. Will the Armenian society listen to it? Is it capable of fighting for survival, when Pashinyan is steadily reducing the influence of Armenia in the world, turning it into Anti-Russia? What happens to Anti-Russia? Ukraine can be cited as an example. Pashinyan’s attempts to follow the lead of the US and incite hatred towards Russia are completely futile, while Yerevan does not talk about the main thing. Armenia itself exists only thanks to the CSTO and Moscow's influence in the region. So Armenia must remember this,” Koltashov added.

Associate professor of the Department of Mass Communication at the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, political analyst Anar Hasanov said that it is natural that Moscow dislikes the attitude of its ally - Armenia, at least, a declarative ally.

“One precedent follows another, for example, when Russia sends a note to Armenia in connection with the participation of Armenian officials at an event in Ukraine’s Bucha, as well as their anti-Russian statement on this issue. However, there are new statements. Therefore, I reiterate that there is a concrete precedent because Russia’s other allies and partners, namely, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus do not make anti-Russian statements. However, Armenia turned out to be a kind of 'pioneer' in this issue,” the political analyst noted.

 He said that Russia understands that not only the current government of Armenia and its electorate, but also whole Armenia experiences antipathy towards Russian policy. The social base for Russia is now rather smaller in Armenia. By making such statements, Pashinyan and his team primarily rely on this resource.

“Moscow also understands that such rhetoric is most intended for the domestic audience in Armenia. However, it seems to me that Russia will not take radical steps against Armenia. What are the radical steps? Among these steps are the severance of diplomatic ties, the recall of the Russian ambassador from Armenia and other actions. However, I don’t see all this yet, and Armenia is still a declarative ally of Russia and is still a member of the Eurasian Economic Union [EAEU], CSTO and other organisations. By the way, Armenia now chairs the EAEU. Even the August event that we expect, when Russian border guards leave Zvartnots airport, will not affect relations between Russia and Armenia because agreements have been reached on this topic between Putin and Pashinyan,” he said.

“Even if the 102nd Russian base is withdrawn from Armenia, which, by the way, is quite possible, nothing special will happen, Russia will resolve these issues comprehensively only after Ukraine. Armenia is not such a big problem for Russia. First, Russia will solve the big problem, and after it the smaller ones will be solved. Moscow has such an approach in connection with the South Caucasus. Indeed, it looks as if Russia is leaving the region, but this does not mean that it cannot return there. Yerevan should take this into account. A striking example of this approach now is Georgia. In general, Russia’s sharp steps are closely related to the war in Ukraine; the more success on the battlefield, the harsher Moscow’s reaction to Armenia’s attitude may be,” Hasanov added.