Armenian opposition vows to block Pashinyan's 2026 election bid

On December 27, the leader of the Armenian opposition movement "Sacred Struggle," Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, during a press conference, stated that the opposition will not allow Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to participate in the upcoming elections in the country, which will be held in 2026.

Allow me to quote the archbishop, and this is just the first of several, as it was a press conference: "I do not consider his activity on social media to be election campaigning. First of all, he does not have the courage to run in the elections. Secondly, we will not allow him to do so. Because there is no such mood or desire, our assessments differ on this matter. As for election campaigning and everything else, let them try."

By the way, this was Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan's response to the journalist’s question about whether Pashinyan's active use of social media is preparation for the elections. Well, we won’t ask how the archbishop knows about Pashinyan’s plans and about his (Pashinyan's) courage, though I suspect that within Pashinyan’s circle (of course, not the innermost circle) there are agents of the "Sacred Struggle" movement. However, something tells me that there are far more of Pashinyan's agents in the "Sacred Struggle" movement, but these are just details. But exactly how the movement plans to "prevent Pashinyan from running in the elections," what resources the movement has at its disposal, and whether it has the support of the broader masses, remains to be seen.

Bagrat Galstanyan himself addresses all of these questions during the press conference, analyzing the reasons why the movement to overthrow Pashinyan has failed. Here, let me quote again: "The main mistakes of the 'Sacred Struggle' protest movement were the lack of time to address organizational issues, as well as excessive confidence in certain political and non-political figures."

So, excuse the bureaucratic phrasing, but what we have here is "the lack of administrative skills, compounded by insufficient funding, as well as the general passivity of the population, which is unwilling to demonstrate revolutionary consciousness and unite around the revanchists and the most reactionary part of the clergy." I think it’s a solid and comprehensive explanation, and if we put it in simpler terms – "Look, we need money, people's bellies are stronger than their spirit, nobody believes us for free, and we can’t convince them." The people of Armenia are simply tired. The people of Armenia want a peaceful life, not hysterical rallies and the ensuing mass disorder. The people of Armenia want peace. The people of Armenia, with the exception of a handful of revanchists (and to be fair, this handful is quite loud, even screaming), are fairly indifferent to the nonsense about "miatsum" (which, by the way, has already happened, to the pleasure of all three parties: Azerbaijanis, Armenians of Armenia, and Armenians who previously lived in Azerbaijan), because, at the very least, they understand perfectly well: those who stir up people for revenge will not be the first to take to the trenches if the situation escalates.

And take note of who is making all the noise about revenge, "trampled national pride," and the "sacred stones of Artsakh" being desecrated by the cursed Turks, while shouting that "today, every Zinvor must become a sparapet." It’s the so-called "former" figures or their confidants—hysterical personalities, members of the clergy, and people from the diaspora. The latter, in the unlikely event of a revenge attempt, won’t be coming to Armenia from places like Marseille or Los Angeles; they’ll remain abroad, limiting their involvement to encouraging a small, uninspired group of revanchists with patriotic songs. In the worst case, they might send modest financial contributions.

The issue is not really with the current government in Armenia, nor with Pashinyan himself, who is far from foolish and knows exactly what to do in the event of mass unrest (though the chances of such unrest happening are, in my estimation, 1 in 1000). The issue lies with the ordinary people, the Armenian population, who, quite frankly, are tired of illusions. The reasons for the failure of the "Sacred Struggle" movement are rooted elsewhere. People don’t really trust the "former" figures, and they are not convinced that removing Pashinyan will suddenly make everything better. It’s also about the fact that people don’t trust the leadership of the "Sacred Struggle" movement, nor, even more so, those backing them.

If we recall Eisenstein’s film Battleship Potemkin, this is not yet a full-blown mutiny on the ship, but the sailors (read: the broader masses) are already starting to frown and turn up their noses. In other words, people are already sniffing the air, fully aware of what Pashinyan's opponents are trying to feed them.