Israel’s three-front battle: Why attack on Iran unlikely in near future? Tough Road Ahead

Caliber.Az spoke with Israeli expert Yuri Bocharov, PhD in Political Science and editor of Aziznews.com, about the anticipated US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia, the potential impact on Ukraine, and the evolving dynamics of American foreign policy under Donald Trump. Bocharov also shared insights on the future of US-Iran negotiations and the likelihood of Israeli military action against Tehran.

What are your expectations for the upcoming talks between the presidents of the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia? Could this meeting help bring an end to the war in Ukraine?

As you know, US President Donald Trump has recently stated that Washington should receive compensation in the form of access to natural resources for the multibillion-dollar aid it is delivering to Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. In a recent interview with Fox News, Trump went even further, noting that Ukrainian territory holds immense value in terms of rare earth metals, oil, and gas. The US leader wants to secure all these natural resources as collateral for $500 billion.

This represents a vast sum of money and enormous opportunities. However, to implement this plan, peace is required. If Trump secures everything he needs from Ukraine, it’s possible that he will reach an agreement with Putin. In that case, he wouldn’t require NATO on Ukrainian territory; he would be content with the business arrangements guaranteed by both Ukraine and Russia. The division of Ukraine and the terms for developing its natural resources will be one of the key topics at the upcoming talks between Trump and Putin.

Considering that Trump has already stated that Europe should start thinking about its own security, without relying on America, the entire "defending Europe" ideology will likely be put aside. The fact is that Trump approaches problem-solving process with economic practicality in mind, including the war in Ukraine, which Europe is fighting with Russia. Trump wants to secure his share both from Ukraine and Europe.

Given Trump's firm stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, US policy in the Middle East is likely to become even more stringent. What do you think?

Today, Hamas, like al-Qaeda, has proven to be a problem on the world map. If humanity wants to address the security issues of Israel, Egypt, Jordan, or other countries in the region, it must eliminate all these terrorist organisations. Therefore, despite the public outrage from many Middle Eastern countries over Trump's hardline policy, they all fully understand that the problem of Hamas, Islamic State (IS) and other terrorist organisations is also their problem, one that needs to be addressed.

Will Iran and the US be able to reach any consensus in the upcoming nuclear deal negotiations?

Trump approaches problem-solving process from an economic perspective, like a businessman, including when it comes to Iran. If Tehran is willing to align with US policy—first and foremost, severing its ties with Beijing and working with the US to slow China’s development—then it’s quite possible that an agreement could be reached. I consider this a possibility, given that, at present, China is the primary concern for the US and they will certainly address it.

If Trump is unable to reach an agreement with Tehran, will Israel launch missile strikes on Iran's strategic sites?

Israel frequently discusses Iran's nuclear programme, and of course, it is deeply concerned about Tehran's potential to develop an atomic bomb. However, objectively, Israel understands that it is impossible to build a nuclear bomb in the coming years. I believe Israel is unlikely to launch an attack on Iran alone. Israel can strike hard and target most of Iran's sites, but if the US does not come to its defence, the consequences would be catastrophic for Tel Aviv as well.

On the other hand, it's clear that if Israel were to strike, it could delay Iran's nuclear programme by over a year. However, the consequences of such a war could significantly impact the development of the region. This is not in Israel's interest today, as it is effectively fighting on three fronts: in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. At the same time, Israel must defend itself in the Palestinian Authority and occasionally engage in conflict with the Houthis. Therefore, such a scenario regarding Iran is unlikely to be in the foreseeable future.