Where will Georgia go after the elections? Pivotal moment for nation

October 26 has arrived—the day of voting in Georgia's parliamentary elections. This election can be viewed as a referendum on national sovereignty. Georgian citizens are essentially choosing between two scenarios for their country.

One option is to “fully surrender” national sovereignty and interests to external forces, which have been communicating with Georgia through blackmail, threats, and ultimatums for several months. This path could lead to a future of subservience to these powers, who, in exchange for vague promises of EU membership, demand the complete dismantling of traditional values (including family structures and the imposition of an LGBT agenda). Such forces could also jeopardize the nation by dragging it into another conflict or using it as a pawn in geopolitical games.

The alternative is to preserve Georgia’s identity—with its traditions, challenges, and accomplishments. This means fostering relationships with neighbouring countries, which, as we know, cannot be chosen. It involves accepting the local elite, who, like any elite, have their shortcomings but remain a part of Georgian society. Furthermore, it includes supporting the Georgian Orthodox Church, which today is perhaps the most conservative and traditional institution in the Christian world.

It’s clear that external forces are not willing to let Georgia go easily. Therefore, the main struggle for Georgia will begin after the polling stations close this evening. The script for this struggle has already been written, regardless of the election results.

Based on various pre-election surveys—both pro-government and opposition—the ruling party, Georgian Dream, is projected to receive the most votes, with estimates showing around 60.2% from one source and approximately 34-35% from another. It seems likely that the Georgian Dream will secure the right to form the government. However, the opposition is determined not to acknowledge this party’s victory.

Additionally, Georgian Dream won’t be allowed to simply take a backseat in parliamentary opposition if it unexpectedly chooses to hand over power to its opponents. The opposition intends to thoroughly dismantle the Georgian Dream and remove it from the Georgian political landscape. To that end, they have announced plans to hold new parliamentary elections within a year after the current vote.

The Georgian opposition is planning a liberal dictatorship and absolute external control under the guise of “the triumph of the European choice.” The ruling party, Georgian Dream, has already been labelled as a “pro-Russian party,” making repression and the “deprivatization” of its leaders almost inevitable. This leaves Georgian Dream with no option but to defend its victory “to the last.”

Compromises in the politically charged environment expected following today’s vote seem impossible. Either the Georgian Dream retains power and continues its policy of building a sovereign state that considers national interests and Georgia's geographical advantages, or the opposition seizes control and immediately places the country entirely in the hands of its external sponsors. These sponsors would likely seek to control the Middle Corridor, a crucial route for transcontinental communications. The implications of these external forces being able to act freely within the territory of what is currently the Georgian state—including the potential to ignite conflict—would significantly alter the geopolitical balances in Eurasia.

Meanwhile, it’s worth noting that the struggle for control over “key” territories, particularly regarding logistics and communications, was a driving factor behind both World War I and World War II. Georgia must avoid becoming a flashpoint for a potential Third World War, as the risk remains alarmingly high. It is no coincidence that in its election campaigning, “Georgian Dream” emphasized its opposition to a global war party, and it appears they are not far from the truth.

There are serious concerns that the opposition may resort to a forceful takeover of power. Indicators of this likelihood include recent warnings about “election fraud” and preparations for protests against such “fraud.” This scenario aligns with the opposition's intention to “celebrate victory” at the residence of President Salome Zourabichvili and to form a “technical government” immediately after the voting. Additionally, on the eve of today’s elections, Rikard Jozwiak, the editor of Radio Free Europe’s European bureau, warned of the possible revocation of Georgia’s visa-free regime with the EU “if the elections this weekend are fraudulent or there is bloodshed.” This raises the troubling question: have “fraud” and bloodshed in Georgia already been preordained in the West?

It is likely that later this evening, immediately after the polling stations close and without waiting for the official vote count, the opposition will announce the “results of exit polls,” claiming an “absolute victory” with over 50% of the total votes. Following this, any official figures from the Central Election Commission of Georgia that do not corroborate this “victory” may be dismissed as “fraud” and “theft of Georgia’s European future.”

The opposition is preparing to call on its supporters to take to the streets this evening—initially to “celebrate victory,” and later to protest against “fraud” and to demand the overthrow of “Putin’s agents” and the “Russian Dream,” a term they now use to refer to the party Georgian Dream.

The Georgian authorities are also preparing for such scenarios. The Ministry of Internal Affairs is equipping its units with modern tools and weapons to counter potential unrest. During the recent inauguration of a new special operations department base in Krtsanisi, Interior Minister Vakhtang Gomelauri announced that his agency had acquired new water cannons, automatic firearms, and pistols, among other equipment. Additionally, law enforcement agencies and the Security Service are monitoring public groups and NGOs that were involved in anti-government protests in 2019 and 2020.

Monitoring efforts are also focused on Georgian citizens and ethnic Georgians holding Ukrainian citizenship who are arriving in Georgia via flights from Ukraine through Poland, Hungary, and other European countries. It is no secret that many of these individuals support the opposition. However, it may be challenging for them to quickly integrate into opposition actions due to factors such as distance and communication difficulties.

However, there is a significant danger that the political confrontation may quickly escalate into armed conflict, with operatives and provocateurs being rapidly deployed into Georgia from “across the nearest border.” It is possible to speculate on where these individuals might originate. Turkey and Azerbaijan have a vested interest in Georgia's stability, while Russia would prefer to avoid a “second front,” which could arise if the opposition comes to power. This leaves Armenia as a potential source of instability.

Armen Grigoryan, the Secretary of the Armenian Security Council, has already met in Brussels with representatives of NATO’s Military Committee. During this meeting, discussions were held regarding “active measures” being prepared by Armenian intelligence services, leveraging an agent network among ethnic Armenians living in Georgia. Just before the elections, a large number of dual-citizen ethnic Armenians from Armenia arrived in Georgia, ostensibly to participate in the voting. Should the opposition initiate protests against alleged “fraud,” this group could very well provide the first provocateurs.

Extremists in Armenia have openly expressed concerns that if the Georgian Dream consolidates power, it could jeopardize the “military transit” between France and the regime in Yerevan. Pro-Western Armenian revanchists are particularly counting on this transit, especially if opposition figures currently coordinated by a former French Foreign Ministry official come to power in Georgia.

Vladimir Tskhvediani, Georgia, for Caliber.Az